Bitcoin Spot Buying Returns While Short-Term Holders Sell Every Rally Above $70K

Bitcoin is holding its ground. Against a backdrop of Iran tensions, an FOMC meeting almost certain to deliver no rate cuts, and equity markets flashing warning signs, that alone is worth noting.

The Fed’s forward guidance – specifically, any renewed language around potential rate hikes – will be the real story out of this week’s meeting. Markets are pricing a 99% probability of no change to rates, so the noise will come from tone, not action. For risk assets broadly, the environment remains unfavorable. Tighter-for-longer monetary policy doesn’t exactly roll out the welcome mat for speculative assets, and any hint that the Fed is reopening the door to hikes could rattle sentiment quickly.

Bitcoin, by comparison, is showing unusual composure. The fact that it hasn’t broken down meaningfully in this environment is a signal in itself – not a bullish confirmation, but at minimum, a sign that the sellers who dominated February are losing some of their grip.

The Flow Data Is Turning

According to Axel Adler of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin spot net volume delta on both Binance and Coinbase has quietly turned positive. The 30-day moving average – which was deeply in the red as recently as mid-February, sitting at -$145M on Binance and -$88M on Coinbase – has since climbed back to roughly +$21M and +$14M respectively.

That’s a significant swing. At the February lows, retail and institutional participants were largely aligned on the sell side. Panic, uncertainty around macro policy, and a price that had lost nearly 30% from its all-time high created a fairly uniform picture: people were getting out. The chart from that period is unambiguous — sustained, heavy negative delta with little meaningful pushback from buyers.

What’s changed is that the two sides are no longer so aligned. Buyers are starting to show up again, and while the volumes remain modest relative to what we saw during the October-November rally, the directional shift matters. Markets don’t reverse on volume alone — they reverse when the composition of participants begins to change. That appears to be happening, slowly.

If this trend holds, it could provide the incremental demand needed to push Bitcoin out of its current range. But liquidity across the broader crypto market remains thin, meaning moves in either direction can be exaggerated. Confirmation is still required.

The $70K Ceiling Isn’t Moving Yet

What the improving flow data won’t easily push through — at least not without a fight — is the sell wall that keeps reasserting itself above $70,000.

Glassnode data shows that as price edged above $74K this week, short-term holder realized profit, measured on a 12-hour moving average, spiked to $18.4 million per hour.

It’s a pattern that has repeated consistently since February: each time Bitcoin approaches or breaches the $70K level, short-term holders rotate out, absorbing momentum before any sustainable breakout can develop.

These are participants who bought relatively recently, likely during the late 2025 rally, and are now sitting on positions that are either marginally profitable or breaking even. Every recovery toward those entry levels becomes an exit opportunity. The result is a market that keeps running into the same ceiling, built from the same hands — and until that supply is absorbed or those holders capitulate entirely, the ceiling isn’t going anywhere.

A Cycle Theory That’s Getting Attention

Separate from the flow data, a technical argument making rounds this week has attracted significant attention. Analyst Merlijn The Trader is pointing to what he describes as a precise cyclical pattern: in every prior Bitcoin cycle, the distance from an all-time high to the bear market bottom has measured exactly 23 monthly bars. Not 22. Not 24. The 2025 ATH, he argues, was 23 bars ago.

His read on what comes next is straightforward: a monthly close above $77K would confirm the bottom is in and the next leg up has begun. A drop below $65K would suggest one more monthly bar of downside remains before the floor is set.

It’s a clean framework, and the consistency of the pattern across prior cycles is hard to dismiss entirely. But clean frameworks have a way of breaking at exactly the wrong moment. The more people trade around a theory, the more it tends to get front-run, distorted, or invalidated. That said, it captures the binary tension traders are sitting with right now — a structure that looks increasingly like a base, met by sellers who aren’t done yet.

Institutions Aren’t Waiting for Confirmation

While retail sentiment remains uncertain and on-chain data is only just beginning to recover, institutional players appear to have already made their decision.

Strategy – formerly MicroStrategy – has ramped up its Bitcoin accumulation in a meaningful way. After a period of relatively subdued purchases, the company returned with force, with its latest purchase amounting to 22,337 BTC for approximately $1.57 billion at an average price of around $70,194 per coin. The timing is notable: they were buying aggressively at precisely the levels where short-term holders were selling. Strategy now holds 761,068 BTC, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world, and shows no indication of slowing down.

The picture is similar on the institutional side in Asia. Metaplanet, the Japanese firm that has been steadily building its Bitcoin position, raised $255 million from institutional investors through a new share placement. The deal also includes warrants that could add another $276 million, bringing total potential proceeds to $531 million. The company currently holds 35,102 BTC, worth roughly $2.47 billion at current prices. The fact that institutional investors participated in the raise — rather than the company simply issuing debt — suggests there is genuine external appetite for Bitcoin exposure at this level, not just internal conviction.

Taken together, the institutional posture stands in contrast to the hesitation visible in spot market flows. The large players aren’t waiting for $77K to confirm anything. They appear to be treating the current range as an accumulation zone.

Where This Leaves Things

The setup heading into the coming weeks is genuinely contested. Flow data is improving but unconfirmed. Institutional accumulation is accelerating. Short-term holders are still selling into every rally. Macro conditions remain broadly unfavorable. And a closely watched cycle theory is sitting right at its decision point.

Bitcoin has absorbed a significant amount of pressure since its all-time high and has not broken to new lows. That resilience, combined with the early signs of demand returning and the scale of institutional buying, gives bulls something to work with. Whether the market can finally clear $70K — and hold it — will likely determine the tone for the rest of the quarter.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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