XRP’s Absorption Score Is Negative on Both Timeframes – Supply Is Outpacing Demand on Binance

CryptoQuant data tracking the XRP Exchange Absorption Score on Binance shows a negative reading of approximately -2.94 million XRP on the daily basis and a 7-day average of -7.79 million, indicating that selling pressure is present even as inflows and outflows converge toward relative balance.

What the Chart Shows

The chart covers November 2024 through mid-March 2026, tracking four components. The blue line represents inflows. The orange line tracks outflows. The green line is the daily absorption score. The purple line is the 7-day rolling absorption score average.

From early November through late November, the chart opens with its most extreme readings. The purple 7-day absorption score sits above 600 million on the right axis at the start of the visible period, reflecting a period of exceptionally strong net demand absorption.

Both inflow and outflow lines show elevated activity, with inflows peaking near 350 million XRP in early November before declining. The purple line dropped sharply from above 600 million toward 300 million through December, reflecting a normalization of the extreme demand conditions that accompanied XRP’s late 2024 rally.

Through December and into January, both the inflow blue line and outflow orange line settled into a more regular oscillating pattern between roughly 50 million and 200 million XRP per day. The absorption score lines, both green and purple, declined steadily toward the zero baseline. Around late January, a notable event is visible. The outflow orange line spiked sharply above 600 million XRP, the largest single outflow reading on the chart, while the inflow blue line also spiked but to a lower peak. That event corresponds with a period of significant price volatility visible in the broader XRP price data from that window.

From February onward, both flow lines have compressed into a tighter range near 50 million to 150 million XRP daily. The green daily absorption score has oscillated around zero with several negative dips. The purple 7-day average has stabilized near the zero line but sits slightly below it, consistent with the current -7.79 million reading.

What the Absorption Score Measures

The absorption score captures the relationship between inflows and outflows in a way that raw flow figures alone do not. Inflows represent XRP moving onto Binance, typically associated with selling intent. Outflows represent XRP leaving the exchange, typically associated with holding or withdrawal. When outflows consistently exceed inflows, the absorption score is positive, meaning the exchange is absorbing supply faster than it is receiving it. When inflows exceed outflows, the score is negative, indicating supply is entering faster than it is being absorbed by buyers.

The current daily reading of -2.94 million and the 7-day average of -7.79 million both sit in negative territory. The gap between inflows and outflows is not large in absolute terms, with inflows at approximately 72.4 million XRP against outflows of 69.4 million. That 3 million XRP daily difference is modest relative to the exchange’s total throughput. The negative absorption score at this level reflects a marginal but persistent supply overhang rather than aggressive selling pressure.

The Large Movements and What They Signal

The most analytically significant feature of the chart is the historical volatility in both flow lines. Multiple spikes reaching above 200 million to 300 million XRP in both directions are visible throughout the period, with the February outflow event exceeding 600 million. Those movements reflect activity by large holders or institutional portfolios whose single transactions can shift the daily absorption reading from positive to deeply negative or vice versa.

The current compression of both flow lines into the 50 million to 150 million XRP range represents a low-volatility environment relative to the prior months. That compression can precede either a period of continued directionless price action or a breakout in either direction when a large participant re-enters the market with size.

The Current Implication

The negative absorption score on both the daily and 7-day timeframe, combined with the modest inflow advantage over outflows, describes a market where incoming liquidity is not converting into strong buying demand. Price support requires outflows to consistently exceed inflows at the margin. The current data shows the opposite, even if only slightly.

As covered in earlier reporting today, XRP traded at $1.4408 with both RSI signals below the 50 midpoint and price sitting below the declining 50-period SMA. The absorption score data adds an on-chain layer to that technical read. The derivatives structure is weak. The flow balance is marginally negative. The near-term path of least resistance remains lower unless demand improves materially.

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