ASML Stock Jumps 4% as SK Hynix Places $8 Billion EUV Order

TLDR

• SK Hynix is buying ~$7.97 billion worth of ASML EUV tools for delivery by end of 2027
• Morgan Stanley flagged the deal as a potential upside driver to its ASML estimates
• ASML is up 79.5% over the past year, well ahead of the broader tech sector
• EUV systems made up 56.1% of total net bookings in Q4 2025
• Analyst consensus puts 2027 EPS at $37.51, a 26.3% jump from 2026 projections

SK Hynix has announced it is purchasing 12 trillion KRW — roughly $7.97 billion — in EUV tool sets from ASML, with shipment expected by the end of fiscal year 2027. The deal is one of the largest single equipment commitments seen in the semiconductor space in recent memory.

Morgan Stanley flagged the order as a potential catalyst, noting that ASML had already been pointing to positive customer conversations and clean room availability for DRAM production. The bank said the purchase could push upward pressure on ASML’s build capacity.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

ASML stock moved higher on the news, adding around 4% to trade near $1,370. The move comes after a year where the stock has already surged 79.5% — leaving the 26.8% tech sector gain and the 22.4% Nasdaq Composite rise looking tame by comparison.

A Monopoly on the Most Critical Step in Chipmaking

ASML holds a virtual monopoly on EUV lithography — the process used to etch the most advanced chip patterns. The company spent over 17 years and more than 6 billion euros developing the technology, which uses extreme ultraviolet light bounced off specialized mirrors inside a vacuum chamber.

That level of complexity is a natural moat. No competitor has cracked EUV at high-volume manufacturing scale, which means chip fabs have one place to go when they need the most advanced machines.

In Q4 2025, EUV accounted for 56.1% of total net bookings — up from a period when DUV machines dominated the order book. Only two of those were ASML’s most advanced high numerical aperture (high-NA) EUV systems, suggesting the rollout of that next generation of machines is still early.

ASML’s service business — mainly maintaining the DUV machines already installed at fabs around the world — makes up roughly a quarter of total revenue, giving the company a recurring income floor regardless of new order cycles.

The stock currently trades at around $1,370, implying a market cap of approximately $528 billion.

Valuation Is Stretched — But Earnings Are Growing to Match

Analyst consensus has ASML earning $29.69 per share in 2026, rising 26.3% to $37.51 in 2027. Even using those forward numbers, the stock is trading at about 35 times 2027 projected earnings — not cheap by any standard measure.

But the bull case rests on the trajectory, not the current multiple. AI chip demand is pushing fabs to invest heavily in next-generation equipment, and ASML sits at the center of that spending cycle.

The SK Hynix deal reinforces that demand is real and committed, not just sentiment-driven.

Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are still pouring capital into AI data centers. That flow eventually reaches ASML through chip manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung, which need new fabs equipped with EUV tools to keep up with production targets.

ASML’s current stock price of $1,370.95 sits within a 52-week range of $578.51 to $1,547.22 — meaning the stock has more than doubled off its lows and is trading below its all-time high.

The SK Hynix order, combined with Morgan Stanley’s commentary on clean room availability and ample capacity signals, suggests near-term order momentum remains intact heading into 2027.

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