BTC Price Approaches Bear Flag Lower Support: Breakdown Imminent or Bounce? (March 27 Update)

Like a car crash in slow motion, the Bitcoin price is getting nearer the bottom of its bear flag and a point of no return. With economic and geopolitical factors weighing heavily, any kind of lasting recovery is just not able to take place. Is the $BTC price about to drop out of this 2-month long bear flag, or can the bulls put up a fight and remain inside? 

USDT dominance set for a rise to 10%?

Source: TradingView

If there were any lingering hopes that the bulls would somehow extricate themselves from the current $BTC price predicament, the above USDT dominance chart probably dashes them. If USDT gains dominance, it means that investors are taking their money out of Bitcoin and crypto and they are keeping it on the sidelines in the form of stablecoins.

Where the $BTC price has suffered two consecutive bear flags, USDT dominance is on its second bull flag. Given that this is a continuation pattern, a breakout would be expected to the upside. The measured move for this breakout could take USDT dominance to a little over 10%, which would be a new all-time high. Could some of this value go back into Bitcoin eventually? Yes, but the bear market needs to reach completion first.

Head and shoulders pattern about to break?

Source: TradingView

A miserable looking short-term chart above reveals that the $BTC price could be about to break down right at this moment in time. A head and shoulders is playing out, and the $BTC price has just dipped below the neckline of this pattern. 

That said, the $67,800 horizontal level is strong support, and it just happens to tally with the ‘point of control’ of the Volume Profile Visible Range indicator (VPVR). Therefore, this particular bull/bear battle is going to be quite crucial for whether $BTC stays in the bear flag or not.

A critical daily candle close

Source: TradingView

Moving out into the daily time frame, but remaining zoomed in, it can be seen that the neckline and the horizontal support level is holding. At least up to now. However, it can also be seen that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has come down to form resistance at the major $69,000 horizontal level.

The $BTC price opened below this level on Friday, so today’s candle close will be very important to see whether the price confirms the break, or whether it can get back above.

The bottom of the bear flag, or even the horizontal support level at around $66,000 are initial areas for the price to break down to should the bears win this particular struggle.

A September bear market bottom?

Source: TradingView

Looking at the weekly time frame, one has to ask the question: Can the bulls force the $BTC price up and through the bear market trendline? The honest answer has to be that given the bear flag continuation pattern, this is an unlikely scenario. One more drop, probably down to at least $50,000, is what this chart is telling us.

The 200-week SMA is coming into line with the $60,000 local bottom, and therefore bulls could be hoping that this might be enough to stop the rot at that level. This would also be a potential double bottom. Be that as it may, the measured move out of the bear flag has a target of around $38,000. 

Which of these targets could be the one? Or does this bear market have something else in store for us? The descent to the bottom of the last bear market took around a year. We are only 6 months into this one. Will we need to wait until September to witness the absolute bottom?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.