Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Gains 3% as Morgan Stanley Raises Target to $172

TLDR

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose over 3% on March 27, 2026, while major indexes fell
• Brent crude surged past $110/barrel following disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz
• ~17.8 million barrels per day of oil supply has been disrupted in the region
• President Trump extended Iran negotiations deadline by 10 days to April 6
• Morgan Stanley raised its XOM price target to $172 from $134, keeping an Overweight rating

Exxon Mobil (XOM) climbed more than 3% on Friday, March 27, bucking a weak broader market as soaring oil prices gave energy stocks a sharp boost.

Exxon Mobil Corporation, XOM

The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.1% on the same day. XOM was one of the few bright spots.

The main driver was a dramatic surge in global crude prices. Brent crude was trading above $110 per barrel at midday, with prices having already flirted with $120 in recent weeks following U.S. and Israeli joint air strikes on Iran on February 28.

The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — has seen about 17.8 million barrels per day disrupted since tensions escalated. That supply shock has sent prices sharply higher.

At 12 PM Eastern on March 27, Brent was priced at $104.28 per barrel. That number moved around during the session as headlines kept coming.

That announcement offered a brief hint of de-escalation, but supply disruptions remained in place, keeping oil elevated and energy stocks supported.

Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target

Morgan Stanley added fuel to XOM’s move on Friday, raising its price target on the stock to $172 from $134. The firm kept its Overweight rating in place.

The bank said oil, LNG, and refining margins had hit their highest levels since 2022. Its analyst noted that even if tensions with Iran cool, a return to pre-crisis price levels looks increasingly unlikely.

Morgan Stanley also updated its price forecasts, bumping its 2026 WTI benchmark estimate by 44%, NGLs by 40%, and refining cracks by 35%. EBITDA estimates across its North America energy coverage are rising around 40% for 2026 and 23% for 2027.

No company-specific operational news came from Exxon on March 27. The stock’s move was driven by macro factors and the analyst call.

Exxon’s integrated model — covering upstream production, refining, and chemicals — puts it in a position to benefit across the board when crude prices spike. Rival Chevron and other major oil producers also gained on the day.

Inflation and Fed Policy in Focus

With crude above $110, market pricing shifted to reflect zero chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term. Fed officials had previously signaled one cut was possible in 2026.

Rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns weighed on growth stocks and the broader market. Energy remained one of the few sectors in positive territory.

Morgan Stanley’s revised price deck now puts Exxon’s price target at $172, up from $134 — a 28% increase in the firm’s valuation on the stock.

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