Quantum risk resurfaces at the worst time for bitcoin, but QRL token is loving it: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

If macro worries tied to the Iran conflict weren’t enough, new research has revived what might be seen as an existential threat to bitcoin BTC$66,812.85, quantum computing.

A paper from Google suggests breaking the Bitcoin blockchain’s cryptography with quantum computers could require fewer than 500,000 qubits, a fraction of previous estimates. A separate paper by Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests a system with around 26,000 qubits could break the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, in about 10 days. (“Qubits” are considered the processing power units of quantum computers.)

A quantum hack would compromise the core tenets of crypto, namely “trust the code” and the “hard money” value proposition, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. About 25%-30% of the total bitcoin supply is already vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks.

While these attacks remain theoretical, according to Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb, they put a deadline in place: The network may need to upgrade to quantum-safe technology by around 2029.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value has already pulled back to $66,250 from the high of over $68,000 reached during Asian trading hours. This comes as demand-side conditions appear weak and real or inflation-adjusted returns on bonds rise, disincentivizing investment in risky and emerging technologies such as bitcoin.

While the broader market followed bitcoin lower, one token stood out. QRL, the native cryptocurrency of the Quantum Resistant Ledger, has surged 40% in 24 hours, hitting a high of $1.62. The token’s market cap was just over $127 million at the time of writing.

QRL describes itself as “an externally audited enterprise-grade blockchain platform secure today from the quantum computing advances of tomorrow.”

Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on elliptic curve cryptography that makes it vulnerable to quantum attacks, QRL uses a quantum-safe signature scheme called XMSS (eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme).

XMSS is a post-quantum cryptography algorithm recognized by standards bodies such as NIST for its resistance to quantum attacks. By design, XMSS generates one-time signatures that are extremely hard for quantum computers to crack, making QRL theoretically “future-proof” against quantum threats.

The takeaway: Projects like QRL could draw more attention and potentially gain market value as concerns about quantum threats grow. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
  • March 31: FTX Recovery Trust to distribute about $2.2 billion to creditors.
• Macro

• March 31, 9:00 a.m.: U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (Prev. 1.4%)
• March 31, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. Chicago PMI for March (Prev. 57.7)
• March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Prev. 91.2)
• March 31, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for February (Prev. 6.946M)

• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Stake DAO CRV and BAL are voting on their bi-weekly gauge to allocate CRV and BAL inflation across various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
  • SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Network Engagement and Grants programs. Voting ends March 31.
  • Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT emissions to a flat daily rate, increase the node staking requirement, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront appchain token allocation. Voting ends March 31.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 31: edgeX (EDGE) token generation event to occur.
  • March 31: WorldLand (WL) to be listed on KuCoin, Gate, and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,053.74 (24hrs: -2%)
• ETH is down 0.31% at $2,015.51 (24hrs: -1.84%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.1% at 1,893.79 (24hrs: -2.15%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.76%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0018% (2.0093% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 100.44
• Gold futures are up 0.9% at $4,598.60
• Silver futures are up 3.59% at $73.11
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.58% at 51,063.72
• Hang Seng closed up 0.15% at 24,788.14
• FTSE is up 0.69% at 10,197.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.48% at 5,568.53
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.11% at 45,216.14
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39% at 6,343.72
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.73% at 20,794.64
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 31,934.94
• S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,475.76
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.8 bps at 4.324%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.85% at 6,442.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.8% at 23,323.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.91% at 45,880.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.58% (-0.06%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03054 (0.66%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 996 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $31.78
• Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $167,768
• CME Futures Open Interest: 102,450 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.6 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV.
• The index remains stuck in a sideways grind, pointing to market calm and low volatility.
• Traders should watch for a breakout against the backdrop of the latest quantum-computing threat, as it would signal panic and increased price turbulence.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $160.79 (-0.22%), +0.47% at $161.54 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $89.91 (-4.00%), +0.12% at $90.02
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.15 (-4.72%), +1.52% at $17.41
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.27 (-3.37%), +0.69% at $33.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.80 (-2.74%), -0.13% at $7.79
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.83 (-7.58%), unchanged in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.91 (-7.70%), +1.01% at $14.05
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.18 (-5.54%), +0.73% at $8.24
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $32.33 (-8.13%), +2.78% at $33.23
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.20 (-4.32%), +2.74% at $6.37

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $121.44 (-3.64%), +0.45% at $121.99
• Strive (ASST): closed at $9.37 (-4.92%), +1.18% at $9.48
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.01 (-0.50%), unchanged in pre-market
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.95 (-5.10%), +0.63% at $0.95
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.04 (-5.45%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $69.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.98 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.56 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million

Source: Farside Investors

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