Raoul Pal Predicts Crypto Market Liquidity Surge After US Government Shutdown

TLDR

• The US government shutdown ended on November 13, 2025, after 43 days when President Trump signed the funding bill passed by Congress
• Market expert Raoul Pal predicts increased liquidity flow from Treasury spending and expects the dollar to weaken in coming months
• Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided on December rate cuts, with some supporting cuts while others are uncertain
• Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 despite the shutdown ending, as the crypto market turned bearish
• The SEC and CFTC resumed operations on Thursday after 43 days of reduced staffing, with backlogs of ETF and IPO applications to review

The US government officially reopened on November 13, 2025, after President Donald Trump signed a funding bill. The shutdown lasted 43 days, beginning on October 1, 2025.

Market expert Raoul Pal shared his outlook for the crypto market following the government reopening. The Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO posted on X that increased liquidity flow will occur in the coming days. This will result from massive spending from the Treasury General Account.

Pal expects this liquidity increase to continue for several months. He also predicts the US dollar will lose strength during this period. The CEO anticipates the balance sheet will continue to rise.

Pal identified the year-end funding squeeze as the next major event to monitor. He believes temporary measures like term funding will be implemented to boost liquidity. The market expert also expects increased efforts to finalize the Clarity Crypto Act bill.

The proposed bill would provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Pal also discussed international developments. He stated China will continue balance sheet expansion while Europe will add fiscal stimulus.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Uncertainty

Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided on rate cuts for December. Fed Governor Stephen Miran supports a 50 basis point rate cut. He believes not continuing to ease would be shortsighted.

San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly has changed her position. Previously a strong supporter of rate cuts, she now says she has not made her decision. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari also remains undecided due to mixed economic signals.

The crypto market turned bearish despite the shutdown ending. Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark. Several other top crypto assets also declined in value.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold a policy meeting on December 10, 2025. Votes will be taken at that meeting to determine if another rate cut will be implemented.

SEC and CFTC Operations Resume

The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission resumed operations on Thursday. Staff members returned to work after being furloughed for 43 days. Both agencies’ operations plans required employees to return the day after appropriations legislation was enacted.

Acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham confirmed the return to work on X. During the shutdown, both agencies operated with reduced staff. The SEC had limited ability to review applications for exchange-traded funds, including crypto-related products.

The CFTC ceased most of its operations during the shutdown. This included enforcement, market oversight, and regulatory rulemaking work. Some companies submitted IPO and ETF applications before the shutdown ended, anticipating the reopening.

Jay Dubow, a partner at law firm Troutman Pepper Locke, said some companies submitted applications knowing they would not be reviewed immediately. He warned that repeated shutdowns risk things slipping through the cracks.

Both agencies now face backlogs of applications submitted during the 43-day period. SEC Chair Paul Atkins had said in October that the agency was still functioning within limits. He stated there were restrictions on what staff could and could not do.

Before the shutdown ended, Atkins said the SEC planned to consider establishing a token taxonomy in the coming months. The taxonomy would be anchored in the Howey test. CFTC acting chair Pham said the agency had been pushing for approval of leveraged spot cryptocurrency trading as early as December.

Michael Selig, chief counsel for the SEC’s crypto task force, is scheduled to appear before the Senate Agriculture Committee. He has been nominated by Trump to serve as the next CFTC chair. Pham is expected to leave her position as acting chair if the Senate confirms Selig.

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