Rising Stablecoin ESR Signals Bitcoin’s Next Rally as DXY Weakens

Bitcoin (BTC) is positioning for its next potential upward move, fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar and a quiet accumulation of stablecoin buying power on exchanges.

According to new on-chain data, the market is building a substantial liquidity reservoir, which, historically, has been a signal for prices going up significantly.

Market Mechanics Point to Accumulation

A report from XWIN Research Japan revealed that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has fallen nearly 8% since the start of 2025.

In that period, Bitcoin has held firmly above the $100,000 mark, reinforcing a persistent inverse relationship between the two assets. The current correlation coefficient stands at about -0.52, confirming BTC’s established role as a gauge of global liquidity conditions, which tend to improve when the dollar weakens.

However, according to XWIN, the most compelling evidence for a potential rally comes from stablecoin metrics. Data from CryptoQuant shows the proportion of the total stablecoin supply held on trading platforms, known as the Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR), has increased to 0.457.

A higher ESR indicates that investors are holding a large amount of ready-to-deploy capital on exchanges, waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market for assets like Bitcoin, and the reported quantity is at its highest point since the beginning of the year.

In the past, major upward moves in Bitcoin’s price have often followed periods that combined a soft dollar with growing stablecoin exchange balances. This suggests that, despite the recent price pressure, market participants are preparing for a new phase of activity rather than exiting.

Navigating Short-Term Pressure and Long-Term Signals

Nonetheless, recent macroeconomic and political turbulence has tested the optimistic setup laid out in XWIN Research’s assessment.

For one, the record 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which ended on November 13, created significant uncertainty. As noted by market watcher GugaOnChain, the shutdown stalled regulatory progress and, without key economic data, made it difficult for the Federal Reserve to guide monetary policy.

The caution was evident in the crypto market’s growth rate, which saw a broad slowdown between October 1 and November 10. The aggregate market capitalization fell by $408 billion, primarily impacting mid- and small-cap assets, suggesting a move towards safety.

Bitcoin’s price action has also mirrored this conflict, dipping below $101,000 during the shutdown but recovering to around $103,000 after President Trump signed the bill to reopen the government.

However, the asset has struggled for direction, with its seven-day performance nearly flat and its 30-day change showing a drop of about 8% per CoinGecko data.

Yet, underlying strength remains. As observed by pseudonymous analyst Darkfost, the total market cap of major stablecoins is nearing a record $260 billion, proving that capital is not leaving the ecosystem. Furthermore, miner selling pressure has begun to subside, a trend that has often appeared before accumulation phases.

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