Sotheby’s CEO expects strong demand ahead of $1.4 billion art auctions

The fall auction sales in New York next week are expected to top $1.4 billion, marking a 50% increase from last year and a potential rebound for the art market after three years of declines, according to art experts.

A star-studded lineup of famous trophy works — from a $150 million Gustav Klimt portrait to a multimillion-dollar gold toilet — will lead the auctions at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips next week. Often the most important week of the year for the art market, the sales follow stronger-than-expected results for recent sales in Paris and London and could restore confidence in the art market.

Dealers and auction executives said the improvement is being driven by stronger demand as well as better supply. Falling interest rates, soaring stock prices and trillions of dollars in wealth creation in both public and private markets in recent months are fueling greater confidence by wealthy buyers.

At the same time, a parade of ultra-rare masterpieces are starting to come cross the auction block as sellers become more confident in prices and bidding.

“All year long we’ve seen very strong demand in the art market,” said Charles Stewart, Sotheby’s CEO. “Our demand levels have been setting records, whether that’s bidders per lot or our hammer [prices] versus our low estimate or our sell-through rates. What we’ve seen more recently, though, is the supply catching up with the demand. Something’s definitely shifted in the last two months.”

The big headliners for the week come from the estates of Leonard Lauder — the billionaire heir to the Estée Lauder Companies — and Jay and Cindy Pritzker, of the Pritzker real estate dynasty. Sotheby’s is selling 55 works from the Lauder collection for a total of over $400 million. The works include Klimt’s colorful “Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer,” estimated at over $150 million, as well as two Klimt landscapes, one estimated at over $70 million and the other over $80 million. It also features six bronze Matisse sculptures and one of Edvard Munch’s famous “Midsummer Night” paintings.

The Pritzker collection includes 37 works estimated at over $120 million, including a Van Gogh still life estimated at more than $40 million.

Christie‘s has several sought-after works estimated at between $40 million and $60 million, including Monet’s “Nymphéas” water lily painting, David Hockney’s “Christopher Isherwood and Don Bachardy.” It’s also offering Mark Rothko’s “No. 31 (Yellow Stripe)” for more than $50 million.

“I think next week will be a giant sigh of relief that we’ve gotten over the worst,” said Andrew Fabricant, the veteran art advisor. “The mood is better, and given the quality of what they’ve got, I think they’ll do well. You don’t need 20 years of art history to understand the appeal of those Klimt paintings.”

Sotheby’s will benefit in part from the opening last week of its new global headquarters at the famous Breuer Building in Manhattan. The building — considered a masterpiece of brutalist architecture, strategically located on the Madison Avenue luxury shopping corridor — is already packed with crowds, with more than 10,000 visiting the exhibit as of Wednesday. The buzz and visibility is core to Sotheby’s strategy of attracting new collectors and educating the next generation of bidders about about art and culture.

“This is a tremendously important moment for us,” Stewart said of the building’s opening. “I think a number of our consigners [sellers] were also excited by the opportunity.”

Still, after three years of declines in auction sales, some dealers and art experts wonder whether next week’s rebound will have staying power. As older collectors fade from the auction scene, the next generation of buyers and collectors is showing different priorities and tastes.

While older collectors often sought status trophies and “wall power” by well-recognized artists, younger collectors are leaning toward emerging artists and lower-priced works. The generational divide has led to two different art markets — a multimillion-dollar high-end that’s been declining and a vibrant lower-priced market that’s attracting younger collectors.

Sales for works priced over $10 million fell 44% in the first half of the year compared to 2024, and plunged 72% from the post-pandemic peak of 2022, according to the Bank of America Private Bank “Art Market Update.” No works sold at auction for more than $50 million in the first half of this year, compared with 13 sales at that price point in the same period in 2022.  

In 2024, dealers with sales of less than $250,000 reported a 17% increase in sales, compared with a 9% decline for those in the $10 million-plus segment.

“The more mature collectors are aging out and the next cohort may come with different motivations or tastes,” said Drew Watson, head of art services at Bank of America. “Many of that older generation of collectors over the past 30 years — the hedge fund principals, the private equity investors — are getting to the point where they are not as focused on accumulation and more focused on succession and transition.”

Watson said the declines in auction market totals, due largely to weakness at the very high end, has obscured an increasingly thriving gallery and art fair scene filled with younger collectors buying and learning about new artists. Younger collectors are also more interested in forging direct connections with artists rather than buying in the secondary market or auctions.

“Collecting as a lifestyle seems to be on the rise,” he said. “The art fairs are packed.”

The sales next week will also feature a work that’s already sparked global debate over wealth and art. Sotheby’s will be auctioning off “America,” a solid gold toilet made by the Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, who also created the infamous duct-taped banana (titled “Comedian”) that sold at Sotheby’s for $6.2 million.

“America” is one of two toilets that Cattelan made from 100 kilograms (about 220 pounds) of solid 18-karat gold. One version went on exhibit at the Guggenheim Museum in New York in 2016, where it was installed in a bathroom and attracted long lines of visitors.  

It later went on display at the Blenheim Palace in England, where it was stolen and assumed to have been melted down for the gold.

The second one, which is the work being sold, went to a private collector. The New York Times reported that Steve Cohen, the hedge fund billionaire and New York Mets owner, is the seller.

While Sotheby’s hasn’t given a sales estimate for “America,” the gold itself would be worth about $13 million with today’s prices, which have soared over the past year.

Stewart said “America,” like “Comedian,” is a true cultural phenomena.

“What I loved about the banana last year was how it stirred discussion,” he said. “Everywhere I went around the world, people had a point of view on it, whatever it might be, and it prompted so much animated debate. I think ‘America’ will be much the same, because there’s so many different threads of the work that are fascinating — whether it is the object itself, whether it is the title, whether it is the gold, whether it is the art-historical references. When you put it all together, it’s just something that’s tremendously exciting.”

Many dealers and art experts take a different view, saying “America” is pure spectacle rather than art, and says little about serious collectors or artists.

“It’s a headline grabber that has nothing to do with art whatsoever,” Fabricant said.