Trump plans major sanctions on Russian oil, but wants the EU to act first

The European Union is finalizing its 19th sanctions package against Russia, targeting everything from oil flows to crypto platforms to banking systems, according to Bloomberg.

These new restrictions will also hit firms in China and India accused of helping Moscow move crude, as pressure builds from President Donald Trump, who over the weekend said he’s ready to slap “major” sanctions on Russia’s oil exports if the EU doesn’t stall again.

Trump made it clear that the energy revenue funding Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine needs to be shut off, and quickly. “Europe has to move,” Trump said, warning that his administration’s sanctions will only kick in if European countries match the pressure.

Crude imports from Russia have already plummeted in Europe, from 27% before the war to just 3% last year after 2022’s early sanctions, but natural gas is still flowing, especially to Hungary and Slovakia, which were granted temporary exemptions.

The EU’s sanctions draft includes six Russian banks and energy firms, plus full blocking of Russia’s credit card systems, and a wave of new rules targeting crypto exchanges still doing business with the Kremlin.

These platforms, mostly unnamed for now, are reportedly being used to move funds tied to Russian energy companies that are under older restrictions.

The package also goes after refined products made from Russian crude, which would hit India and Turkey, two countries processing huge volumes of Moscow’s oil and sending diesel back into the European market.

Trump pitches 100% tariffs while Hungary and India brace

The United States has already pitched its plan to the Group of Seven. It includes tariffs of up to 100% on China and India, both of which continue buying oil from Russia. Trump’s team is pressing G7 leaders to act in “the coming weeks,” aiming to hammer the networks enabling Russia’s crude trade.

For Brussels, this puts them in a tight spot: while they’ve criticized Moscow, they still rely heavily on Chinese markets and are trying to wrap up a trade deal with India.

Hungary is especially exposed. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has spent the last three years doubling down on Russian energy, could lose a lot if the exemptions disappear. The country has also gone deep into Chinese manufacturing, especially in the electric vehicle and battery sectors.

“The US can really give a checkmate to Orban on Russian energy, if it wants to,” said Andras Deak, a researcher at the National Public Service University in Budapest. Andras warned that companies like Mol Nyrt., which supplies Slovakia’s only refinery, could be crippled by direct energy sanctions.

Even so, Hungary is starting to look around. Viktor just signed a 10-year deal with Shell Plc for 2 billion cubic meters of gas, symbolic, considering the country needs several times that every year. He also traveled to the UAE and Qatar on Friday to talk about alternative fuel supplies.

Hungary’s past diversification efforts, including projects with Azerbaijan and a pipeline through Croatia, might help if Russian imports get cut off completely.

On the Indian coast, another angle to the story played out as the Spartan, a Suezmax tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Russian Urals crude, approached Mundra port, operated by Adani Group.

The vessel had already been sanctioned by both the EU and UK last year for facilitating Russian oil shipments. It’s now expected to be one of the last sanctioned ships to unload at Adani’s terminal before a new ban kicks in.

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., the operator of Mundra, issued an internal advisory on September 11 stating that from now on, no vessel sanctioned by the US, EU, or UK will be allowed to dock.

An Adani spokesperson confirmed Monday that the rule is immediate but doesn’t affect ships that were already heading toward the port when the rule was announced. The Spartan appears to fall into that category.

Over the first eight months of this year, Mundra took in about 180,000 barrels per day of Russian oil, compared to the 1.6 million barrels daily flowing into India overall from Russia. That oil usually goes to refineries run by Indian Oil Corp. and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd.

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