Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally.
“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.
The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.
Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will remain allowed and fall under financial market oversight.
Related: Kalshi bans 3 US politicians for betting on their own election races
Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk
Durigan claimed that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.
The blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazil-focused services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.
Banned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência BrasilBanned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil
Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, alongside several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.
Related: Prediction market battle gets closer to Supreme Court
More countries ban prediction markets
A growing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often folding them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European nations, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.
In the United States, the situation is more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.
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