'Oh my, oh my': Data expert staggered by GOP-leaning group's devastating Trump abandonment

President Donald Trump's deepening unpopularity is dragging down Republican chances with crucial swing voters, according to CNN's Harry Enten.

The 79-year-old president remains underwater in public opinion polling with most demographic groups, and Enten told "CNN News Central" that he's struggling with a key voter bloc that Republican congressional candidates will need in November.

"Who are the people who are dragging down President Trump's approval rating?" Enten said. "We are talking about a very important bloc for the president of the United States, that is Republican-leaning independents. That is what's going on. Take a look here, this is the difference. Trump's approval rating at this point, in terms independents who lean Republican versus those who are just Republicans only. Look at this, among independents who lean Republican back in term number one, he was at 73 percent at this point. Down he goes, an absolute collapse, now just 53 percent of independents who lean Republican now approve of the president of the United States."

"That's very different from Republicans only," he added. "It was 83 [percent] at this point in term number one, it's 83 percent now. But that's a 20-point decline in his approval rating, nearly at the 50 percent mark, with a group that traditionally has very much been in the president's camp."

GOP-leaning independents should theoretically be inclined to like the Republican president, but Enten said that support has collapsed since the 2024 election.

"Oh my, oh my – GOP-leaning independents on Trump in the 2024 election versus Kamala Harris," Enten said. "He got 91 percent of that vote, nearly 100 [percent], you know, near uniformity on that one. But down he goes down into the deep blue sea, now at 53 percent on the job approval rating. I'm not that good at math, but I believe that is a 38-point drop, a 38-point drop from where he was in the 2024 election."

"As I said, this is a core group for Donald Trump, and they are waving adios, amigos – goodbye – we no longer support you, president of the United States," he added. "We are going in the other direction, we're deciding to disapprove than approve. He's just above 50 percent in a group that overwhelmingly supported him back in the 2024 election."

Those numbers bode poorly for GOP chances to hold on to their congressional majorities, he said.

"So you see this 38-point drop here and you're a Republican member of Congress say, 'Oh my God, I hope this doesn't affect me,'" Enten said. "Because if it does, a lot of those swing-district congressional members right on the Republican side will be waving, adios, amigos, goodbye. But you know what's going on here? What's going on here? By the way, this is a six and an eight, what we're seeing here, choice for Congress, Republican-leaning independents in the 2024 election. Look at this, they support a Republican candidates by 83 points, but now it's 68 points. That's a 15-point drop again in only 18 months time."

"These are not numbers that Republicans win with, these are numbers Republicans lose with," Enten added, "and so what we're seeing right now is that collapsing support for President Trump among Republican-leaning independents absolutely finding its way down ballot, making its way down ballot, and if these numbers hold for the 2026 election, which is occurring in only a little bit, about six months' time, depending on how you count six months, that would be absolutely devastating for Republicans."

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