Trump inflicting 'carnage' on red-state in quest for revenge —that might fall flat

President Donald Trump is eager for revenge on Republicans who rebuked him in a solid state, with officials warning of midterms "carnage" as a result — but the plan seems like it could ultimately fall flat, according to NOTUS.

Several GOP state senators in Indiana broke with Trump over his push to gerrymander red states and create more Republican House seats for the coming midterm elections, sinking the effort to pass a new map in the Hoosier State and serving as one of the early examples of the party rebuking the president. Now, Trump is looking to make good on his revenge threats against these lawmakers, attempting to unseat them by backing new candidates in the GOP primary races.

As NOTUS explained in a Monday report on the situation, Trump has turned "normally quiet state Senate races into litmus tests of the presidency," and left some in the state concerned about how things will play out, given the rough headwinds the GOP has already been facing.

"It’s left some wondering if the White House and the wider MAGA infrastructure have overplayed their hand, especially during what is widely expected to be a difficult midterm year for Republicans," NOTUS explained.

The report also relayed the bleak scene from a recent event for one of these Trump-backed candidates, put on by Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA.

"On Wednesday, the Turning Point team, which included one local field representative, was setting up a get-out-the-vote operation for Brenda Wilson, the Trump-backed primary challenger to state Sen. Greg Goode," the report detailed. "They had lawn signs and fliers. A Spotify playlist titled 'Trump Rally' blared on a speaker at the outdoor Fairbanks Park amphitheater on the banks of the Wabash River. Four people showed up, three of whom were part of the same family. (Other Turning Point Action events appear to have drawn larger crowds.)"

As a result of Trump's meddling, costs in these state-level races have exploded, forcing more money into campaigns that would otherwise have been safe and easy wins for the GOP. One group backed these Trump-endorsed challengers, Club for Growth Action, told NOTUS that it is spending $2 million on the races. The Senate Majority Campaign Committee, "the official campaign arm for incumbent state Senate Republicans," told a local paper that it has so far spent nearly $2.5 million in 2026, already dwarfing the entire amount spent during the last midterm cycle in 2022.

"These aren’t local elections anymore,” Republican state Sen. Sue Glick, who is not up for reelection this year, said. “We’ll find out if money talks.”

“This is not an ideological battle, it’s about allegiance to Trump,” Marc Short, a GOP adviser who previously worked as chief of staff for former Vice President Mike Pence, told NOTUS. “It’s a lot of carnage for very low return.”

"Now three months into campaigning, uncertainty hangs over the final days of the primary as to whether MAGA’s full-scale retribution campaign will work, even in Trump country," NOTUS explained, noting that, "Trump’s national approval rating sits at just 37% as gas prices rise and the economy worsens because of the war in Iran, though his approval rating is around 49% in Indiana."

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