Oklo Stock Rises Despite Missing Q3 Earnings Estimates – Here’s Why

TLDR

• Oklo reported a Q3 loss of 20 cents per share, missing analyst expectations of 13 cents per share and worse than last year’s 8 cent loss.
• The company posted a net loss of $29.7 million with zero revenue, exceeding the expected $18.2 million loss.
• The Energy Department approved the nuclear safety design for Oklo’s planned fuel fabrication facility at Idaho National Laboratory.
• Stock rose 3.6% in premarket trading despite the earnings miss, having gained 391% since January.
• Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating with a $150 price target, citing AI-driven energy demands expected to increase tenfold by 2030.

Oklo reported a third-quarter loss of 20 cents per share on Tuesday after market close. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected a loss of 13 cents per share.

The loss was deeper than the 8 cents per share loss the company posted in the year-ago quarter. The nuclear startup generated no revenue during the period.

The company’s net loss came in at $29.7 million. That exceeded the $18.2 million loss analysts had anticipated.

Oklo Inc., OKLO

Despite the earnings miss, shares climbed 3.6% in premarket trading Wednesday. The stock had been down 1.1% in late trading immediately following the results.

Oklo closed regular trading Tuesday down 6.6% at $104.22. The stock has gained 391% since January and is up 361% over the past 12 months.

The same day as earnings, Oklo announced regulatory progress. The Energy Department approved the nuclear safety design agreement for its planned fuel fabrication facility at Idaho National Laboratory.

The facility will produce fuel for Oklo’s first commercial-scale powerhouse, the Aurora-INL. That project was selected for the DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program in August.

The fabrication facility itself was chosen for a separate program at the end of September. CEO Jacob DeWitte called the approval a clear marker of progress.

AI Power Demands Drive Analyst Confidence

Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating on Oklo with a $150 price target. The firm cited the company’s positioning to meet AI-driven energy demands.

Computing power needed for AI initiatives is expected to increase tenfold by 2030. This creates substantial demand for new energy sources to power data centers.

Wedbush kept Oklo on its “IVES AI 30” list. The firm believes the company is “setting the stage for nuclear energy to become widely adopted over the next decade.”

The optimism comes as AI revolution drives data center construction. Energy needs for these facilities continue to grow across the industry.

Regulatory Progress Against Tight Timeline

The company went public in 2024 through a merger with a SPAC headed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Since then, scrutiny has increased over its pre-revenue status.

Questions persist about the feasibility of Oklo’s deployment timeline. The company has not yet secured regulatory approval for its first nuclear power plant.

In September, Oklo broke ground on its first nuclear power plant at Idaho National Laboratory. INL is one of 42 federally funded laboratories in the U.S.

The fuel fabrication facility approval shows progress on the regulatory front. The company faces pressure to execute quickly.

The Reactor Pilot Program aims to have at least three test reactors running at national laboratories by July 2026. That timeline is months or years ahead of Oklo’s own targets of 2027 or 2028.

The stock touched an all-time closing high of $174.14 on October 14. It reached its highest intraday level the following day.

Shortly after, shares dropped in a brutal selloff that hit peers like Bloom Energy. The stock largely trades on sentiment and headlines in the absence of revenue.

Reports have questioned Oklo’s valuation. Some have raised concerns about political favoritism after former board member Chris Wright became Energy Secretary, though he recused himself from company matters.

Goldman Sachs cut its price target to $106 while maintaining a Neutral rating. BofA Securities lowered its target to $111, noting progress but highlighting concerns about capital expenditures and power purchase agreement timing.

The market reacted positively to last quarter’s results when Oklo posted a narrower loss. The company said quarterly cash burn was in line with expectations and maintained its targets for commercial operations, reiterating guidance for 2025 cash used in operating activities of $65 million to $80 million.

The post Oklo Stock Rises Despite Missing Q3 Earnings Estimates – Here’s Why appeared first on Blockonomi.