Bitcoin Panic May Be Over – JPMorgan Sees a New Uptrend Ahead

While traders brace for more selling, JPMorgan says the level reached during the latest dip may not be the beginning of a prolonged downturn, but the end of one.

Production Costs, Not Price Charts, Drive JPMorgan’s Call

According to the banking giant, the most important chart this week wasn’t Bitcoin’s price — it was the climbing cost of production. JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, believe the true story lies in the rising difficulty of mining. Their model suggests miners now spend roughly $94,000 to produce a single bitcoin, up from $92,000 just weeks ago. Because mining difficulty and energy expenditure directly determine the marginal cost of supply, the bank argues that this figure now represents a natural floor under the market.

Why a Miner-Driven Floor Matters

Whenever the price falls toward miners’ production cost, JPMorgan says historical behavior repeats: miners stop selling aggressively, supply tightens and forced capitulation disappears. And with margins already razor-thin, the bank believes miners have little incentive to add selling pressure at current levels. If that dynamic holds, the sell-off that pushed Bitcoin below $100,000 may have already exhausted itself.

The Bigger Call: The Next Major Move Could Aim for $170K

What has generated the most surprise, however, is not JPMorgan’s bottom call — but its upside target. The bank estimates that Bitcoin could advance toward $170,000 over the next 6–12 months, driven not by narratives but by mathematics. The analysts point to the volatility relationship between Bitcoin and gold, which has fallen to its lowest point in years. With the volatility ratio now below 2.0, Bitcoin is behaving increasingly like gold while still trading at a fraction of its valuation.

A Closing of the Gold Valuation Gap

With gold sitting on a $28.3 trillion market cap, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin remains significantly undervalued relative to its risk profile. To close even part of that valuation gap, the crypto asset would need to rise by around 60%–70%, leading directly to the bank’s $170,000 price projection. Support for a gold-parity scenario is not limited to JPMorgan: industry figures including Michael Saylor and Changpeng Zhao have publicly predicted that Bitcoin will eventually overtake gold’s market cap, though the timeline remains uncertain.

Cost Curves vs Market Emotion

The timing of the call is striking. The crypto market remains gripped by fear after weeks of volatility, yet JPMorgan insists the mechanism underpinning Bitcoin remains intact: when sentiment collapses and liquidity tightens, miners naturally defend the price floor by limiting supply. That defense, historically, has laid the foundation for the next advance.

For now, traders are watching candles. JPMorgan is watching cost curves. And if the bank is right, the price bottom didn’t arrive when people expected it — it arrived when almost nobody believed it had.

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