XRP Falls Despite Strong ETF Debut: Delayed Impact Explained

TLDR

• The Canary Capital XRP ETF saw a strong debut with $245 million in net inflows on its first day.
• Fabio Marzella explained that the delayed effect of ETF trading on XRP’s price is due to the T+1 settlement system.
• XRP’s price dropped from $2.52 to $2.28 after the ETF launch and continued to decline to $2.16 before a slight recovery.
• Marzella highlighted that the broader crypto market’s bearish trend, driven by Bitcoin’s decline, also impacted XRP.
• Large fund purchases of XRP through over-the-counter transactions do not directly affect the spot price on exchanges.

The XRP community is puzzled as the price of XRP has failed to rise despite the launch of the highly anticipated Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC). While the ETF’s debut was strong, XRP’s price has continued to drop since the launch. Fabio Marzella, Founding and Board Director of the XRPL Foundation, has provided insight into the situation.

XRP Struggles After $245 Million ETF Debut

Many expected a surge in XRP’s price once the XRPC ETF started trading. However, this price spike did not materialize. Marzella clarified that ETF trading takes place on the stock market, not on crypto exchanges where spot XRP is traded.

He explained that when someone buys an XRP ETF share, the issuer does not receive the cash immediately. The T+1 settlement system means that transaction funds settle the next business day. Only after this process can the ETF provider begin buying XRP to back the fund.

This delay is a key reason why early ETF inflows do not immediately translate into spot market demand. As Marzella put it, “An ETF does not pump the price on day one. The true effect often takes longer to be felt.” This means the real impact on XRP’s price may come gradually over time.

Despite a strong debut, the XRPC ETF did not lead to a price surge for XRP. On day one, the ETF recorded $245 million in net inflows and $58.5 million in trading volume by market close. These impressive figures made it one of the best-performing ETF launches of the year. Yet, XRP’s price dropped from $2.52 to $2.28, continuing its downward trend.

In the aftermath of the launch, XRP’s price fell further to $2.16 before slightly recovering to $2.25. As of press time, XRP has dropped 8.63% over the past week. This decline occurred despite the ETF’s early success.

Broader Market Trends Impacting XRP

Marzella also highlighted the broader market conditions contributing to XRP’s price drop. Bitcoin’s price decline, which has fallen below $100,000, has weighed heavily on the entire crypto market. As Bitcoin’s value dropped to $92,900, other major altcoins, including XRP, followed suit.

Nick from The Web Alert noted that large market movements, such as Bitcoin’s dip, often drag down altcoins. He explained that inflows of tens or hundreds of millions are not enough to counteract market-wide selling pressure. Furthermore, XRP’s large supply makes it harder for positive inflows to drive prices higher.

Another factor is how ETFs acquire their underlying assets. After settlement, issuers typically do not buy directly from public exchanges. Instead, significant funds like Canary Capital often source XRP from over-the-counter (OTC) liquidity providers. These OTC transactions do not show up on spot price charts, limiting their visible impact on XRP’s market value.

Despite the initial drop, Marzella encouraged patience. He pointed to Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January 2024, which showed little immediate price reaction but eventually led to a significant rally. This suggests that the impact of ETFs on XRP’s price may unfold over time, rather than on launch day.

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