Cardano (ADA) Price: Whales Sell 440 Million Tokens While Retail Accumulates

TLDR

• Cardano price holds near $0.49 while retail buyers continue purchasing during the dip, shown by higher lows on the Money Flow Index
• Whale wallets sold approximately 440 million ADA tokens this month, creating around $216 million in selling pressure, though the pace has started to slow
• RSI divergence on the 12-hour chart suggests selling momentum may be weakening, with RSI making higher lows while price made lower lows
• The Market Value to Realized Value ratio shows ADA is undervalued at current levels, with 30-day and 7-day MVRV ratios at negative 20.47% and 13.44%
• A move above $0.54 could trigger a 12% rebound, while dropping below $0.45 support may push ADA toward $0.40

Cardano is trading near $0.49 after breaking below a support zone that held for most of 2024. The price has dropped nearly 8% in recent days but found support at $0.45.

Despite the decline, retail traders have been buying the dip. The Money Flow Index shows this clearly. While the price made lower lows from November 4 through November 16, the MFI made higher lows.

This pattern usually means more buyers are stepping in at lower prices. The MFI also broke above its own downward trendline. This indicates buying activity has picked up speed recently.

The retail buying is the main reason ADA has stayed close to $0.49 instead of falling to the next support level. Retail traders appear to be treating the current price as a buying opportunity.

Whale Wallets Create Selling Pressure

Large wallet holders sold almost 440 million ADA tokens over the past month. At current prices near $0.49, this equals roughly $216 million in selling pressure.

Charts tracking whale holdings show this decline clearly. While retail traders bought small amounts, whale wallets moved large quantities out. This selling prevented ADA from breaking higher even with retail support.

A liquidity issue also appeared recently. One whale attempted to swap 14.45 million ADA and lost about $6.2 million because order books lacked sufficient depth. This shows the market struggles to handle very large sell orders without slippage.

If whale selling continues at this pace, the price could fall quickly. If whales slow down their selling, retail buyers may finally push the price higher.

Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart sits around 28, deep in oversold territory. This suggests bearish momentum may be fading. However, the RSI needs to move above its neutral level for a sustained recovery.

An RSI divergence also appeared on the 12-hour chart. From November 4 to November 16, ADA made lower lows but the RSI made higher lows. This pattern often shows up before short rebounds.

The divergence does not guarantee a full recovery is starting. But it often indicates that sellers are losing strength temporarily.

Undervalued Metrics Point to Recovery Potential

The Market Value to Realized Value ratio shows ADA may be undervalued at current levels. The 30-day MVRV ratio reads negative 20.47% and the 7-day MVRV reads negative 13.44%.

These negative readings typically act as buy signals. When MVRV has dropped to similar levels in the past, ADA’s price has often recovered afterward.

Derivatives data also supports a possible rebound. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate flipped to positive at 0.0060% on Tuesday. This means long positions are paying short positions.

When funding rates have turned positive from negative in the past, Cardano’s price has rallied sharply. The current positive rate suggests more traders expect the price to rise than fall.

Price Levels to Watch

For a rebound to develop, ADA needs to hold above $0.49 and then break above $0.54. A clean move above $0.54 could support a 12% gain from current levels. Some analysts think this could trap whale wallets that sold earlier.

If the price closes above $0.54, the next target would be the 50-day exponential moving average at $0.62. This would represent a more sustained recovery move.

On the downside, if ADA falls below the $0.45 support level, the next target would be the psychological level at $0.40. A break below $0.47 would weaken the rebound case and point to lower prices ahead.

The current situation comes down to retail accumulation versus whale distribution. Whichever side slows down first will determine if Cardano moves toward $0.54 or slides to $0.40.

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