10 developments in WESM and renewables in 2025

Here is my quick list of developments during 2025 in two areas of the Philippines electricity sector — the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) and renewables.

1. Peak power demand declined in 2025 to 19,000 megawatts (MW) after a considerable increase in 2024. This can be due to the strong El Niño in 2024 that spiked consumers’ electricity demand, followed by La Niña in 2025 that lowered electricity demand.

2. Power generation was flat in 2025 (compared with 2024’s level) at 118 terawatt-hours (TWh). The share of coal and gas in power generation declined from 77% in 2023, to 74% in 2025. Hydro generation was high during La Niña in 2025.

3. There was a continued decline in Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) prices. The load-weighted average price (LWAP) went down from P6.07/ kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2023 to P3.98/kWh in 2025. This data comes from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).

4. The feed-in tariff allowance (FIT-All) was higher in 2025 — from zero in 2023 to P0.13/kWh in 2025. It was P0.20/kWh in late 2025. FIT — or the guaranteed price for 20 years for intermittent renewables, namely solar and wind power — is high, up to P9/kWh. The higher the difference between the WESM price and the guaranteed price of FIT, the higher the FIT-All that will be collected from consumers (see Table 1).

5. Starting this month, a new subsidy for renewables, called the Green Energy Auction Allowance (GEA-All), will be collected on top of FIT-All. It will start at P0.037/kWh, then will keep rising in the coming years.

This is the result of the Department of Energy’s GEA program. The effective Green Energy Tariff (GET, in Pesos/kWh) are as follows: GEA1 (mostly solar) is P4, GEA2 is P5, GEA4 (mostly onshore wind) is P5.34, and GEA5 (offshore wind) is P12.

The administrator of FIT-All, the National Transmission Corp. (Transco), will also administer the GEA-All. Late last year they released their estimates of the price impact of the GEA program under varying Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR) at P1/kWh to P5/kWh.

I also made my own computations of GEA-All, mainly from expensive wind power. I made two computations for GEA5, 5a with 1,500 MW of offshore wind (OSW) and 5b with 3,300 MW of OSW. The results of my computations can be found in Table 2.

6. Transco estimates show that GEA-All will exceed P1/kWh starting 2030 at CRR P1/kWh. The projected delivery of expensive OSW is by 2030.

7. GEA-All would decline slightly by 2033 as the share of OSW to total power generation is expected to decline as more gas and, hopefully, coal — a lot cheaper than wind whether onshore or offshore — will come in.

8. My estimates, found in Table 2, show that GEA5b will quickly contribute P0.53/kWh in 2030 to the GEA-All. This is consistent with the big jump in GEA-All in 2030 from the Transco estimates.

9. GEA5b would flatline at P0.30/kWh from 2033 onwards (see Table 2).

10. We need a baseload energy auction (BEA) and not just GEA. A BEA from coal, gas, and nuclear would be a lot cheaper than the “green” energy that actually kills millions of trees (solar hates shade from trees, clouds, and rain).

SPNEC IS NOT SPBC
Meanwhile, I saw a press release from the Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN) the other day clarifying that SP New Energy Corp. (SPNEC) is a separate and distinct corporate entity from Solar Para Sa Bayan Corp. (SPBC). It said that MGEN did not acquire any share in SPBC — which was awarded a congressional franchise through RA 11357 to install and operate microgrids in remote areas in Mindoro — and that MGEN is not privy to any transactions of SPBC nor to any circumstances that may relate to its compliance with its franchise.

I have written about SPBC before. I called it “Solar Para sa Politika Corp.” because, unlike all other solar companies, it was the only one that secured its own franchise.

It is good that MGEN invested only in SPNEC which did not violate any law or regulation, and is not dependent on any political and congressional franchise. Christer Gaudiano, MGEN Head for Sustainability, Corporate Communications & External Affairs, said “We hope this clarifies the issue and lays to rest the disinformation coming out especially in social media.”

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com