Bernstein names Figure Technology top 2026 pick as blockchain lending growth accelerates

Wall Street is starting 2026 with a renewed focus on digital finance, as Figure Technology emerges in analyst research as a leading blockchain-driven growth story.

Bernstein backs Figure with top pick call and higher target

Wall Street broker Bernstein has highlighted Figure Technology (FIGR) as its top investment idea for 2026, pointing to the lender’s rapid expansion in blockchain-based credit markets. The call underscores growing conviction that tokenization and on-chain infrastructure could reshape how traditional financial products are issued and traded.

Moreover, the broker reiterated its “outperform” rating on the stock and issued a substantial price target increase, signaling confidence that the company’s fundamentals can support further upside. The report comes at a time when investors are reassessing fintech exposure amid tighter monetary conditions and heightened regulatory scrutiny on digital assets.

Tokenized marketplace and lending growth beat expectations

Bernstein said Figure’s tokenized marketplace volumes and lending activity are running well ahead of internal expectations, suggesting faster adoption of its blockchain-based funding model. The marketplace, which allows credit assets to be originated and traded on-chain, is becoming a central driver of the company’s growth profile.

However, the upside is not limited to loans alone. New loan categories and a rapidly scaling stablecoin yield product are expanding revenue optionality, according to the analysts. That said, the firm still sees significant room for Figure to deepen its presence in its core home equity lending franchise while layering on new credit verticals.

Modernizing legacy banking infrastructure on-chain

Bernstein’s bullish stance is rooted in Figure’s role in modernizing legacy banking ledgers by moving conventional balance sheet records onto public or permissioned blockchains. The analysts argue this migration could meaningfully reduce friction in loan issuance, servicing and secondary trading. It may also improve transparency for both regulators and investors.

“Figure upgrades legacy banking ledgers to the blockchain ledger,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note on Wednesday, emphasizing that the business model “can evolve rapidly towards new lending categories.” Moreover, they contend that the company’s platform economics improve as more assets migrate on-chain, creating network effects around origination and distribution.

The team also noted that the business is evolving faster than initially projected. Activity is expanding beyond its original focus on home equity lines into a broader set of collateral types and loan structures. In the analysts’ view, this evolution supports their thesis that figure technology can become a key player in the emerging tokenized credit ecosystem.

Revenue forecasts sharply upgraded into 2027

Reflecting these trends, Bernstein now projects net revenue for Figure to reach about $945 million by 2027, up from an estimated $511 million in 2025. That revised forecast sits roughly 21% above the broker’s prior estimate, signaling a material upgrade to its growth outlook.

Furthermore, the analysts argue that the revenue trajectory is increasingly supported by diversified income streams, not just one product line. Marketplace fees, lending spreads and yield-related products together underpin the new forecasts, while potential new categories could add incremental upside over time.

Chhugani lifts target to $72 and keeps outperform rating

Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his outperform rating reiterated on the stock and raised his target by 33% to $72 from $54. According to FactSet data, this level is now the second-highest among Wall Street analysts covering the name, underscoring the conviction behind the call.

Piper Sandler remains the top bull on the shares, maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $75, the data show. However, Bernstein’s revised assumptions about net revenue and marketplace growth put it firmly in the optimistic camp on the stock’s medium-term performance.

Trading performance since the 2025 Nasdaq listing

Figure listed on the Nasdaq in September 2025 at an initial public offering price of $25 per share, drawing investor interest as a pure-play on blockchain-based lending. Since the Figure Technology IPO, the stock has climbed significantly from that starting level, reflecting both business progress and positive sentiment toward on-chain financial infrastructure.

In the months following the debut, the shares have traded in a range of roughly $30 to $59. That volatility mirrors broader market swings in growth equities but also highlights persistent demand for exposure to its blockchain-linked lending model. Moreover, the trading pattern suggests investors are actively repricing the company’s long-term earnings potential as new data emerge.

On Wednesday, the stock was trading flat intraday after rising as much as 5% in early trading, as the market digested Bernstein’s updated outlook. That said, the muted immediate reaction may reflect an already strong run in the shares since listing, even as analysts argue there is more room to climb.

Outlook: tokenized credit and revenue diversification

Looking ahead, analysts see Figure well positioned to capitalize on growing institutional interest in tokenized credit assets and blockchain-native funding channels. The company’s expanding loan book, scalable technology stack and developing marketplace infrastructure could help it capture share from slower-moving incumbents.

Moreover, if net revenue tracks closer to Bernstein’s upgraded $945 million by 2027 forecast, investors may increasingly view the stock as a core way to play the convergence of traditional lending and digital asset rails. In that scenario, Figure’s combination of lending expertise and blockchain execution could prove a durable competitive edge.

In summary, Bernstein’s call frames Figure as a high-growth lender reshaping how credit is originated and traded, with tokenization, diversified products and a modernized ledger architecture at the center of its investment case.