Coinbase stock faces headwinds despite bullish forecasts

Coinbase stock price continues to underperform the broader market this year despite the modest optimism from Wall Street analysts.

Analysts are bullish on Coinbase shares

Coinbase, the biggest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, was trading at $240 today, January 16, down by ~45% from its highest point in 2025. In contrast, top American indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 are all hovering near their all-time highs.

Coinbase’s performance mirrors that of other companies in the crypto industry like Robinhood, Strategy, Metaplanet, and PayPal.

The ongoing weakness happened even as some key Wall Street analysts delivered a bullish outlook for the company. Bank of America analysts boosted their rating from hold to buy and their target to $340. Goldman Sachs analysts also boosted the target to $303x while Oppenheimer maintained its outperform rating.

The average estimate among the 32 analysts tracked by MarketBeat is $362, up by 51% from the current level. 

The optimism among analysts is because of its strong market share in the United States and the recently launched initiatives. Coinbase launched a predictions platform in collaboration with Kalshi. It also announced plans to start offering tokenized stocks, a move that will see it gain more customers.

COIN faces numerous headwinds

Still, the company faces major headwinds that may affect its recovery. First, competition in the United States and other markets is rising. Companies like SoFi, Vanguard, and Charles Schwab are all working to launch crypto trading on their platforms. 

Second, the recent crypto market rally has stalled after the company withdrew its support of the CLARITY Act, citing the provisions on stablecoin yield. The company argues that the bill will eliminate stablecoin yields, a move that may affect one of its fastest-growing segments.

Coinbase and other crypto exchanges underperform the market whenever cryptocurrencies are not doing well. Indeed, third-party data shows that the volume in centralized and decentralized exchanges has remained low in the past few months.

Additionally, analysts expect that its profitability will remain under pressure in the coming years as it continues to invest on its ecosystem. The average estimate among analysts is that its earnings per share in 2025 was $7.82, down from $9.48 in 2024. It will then drop to $6.67 this year.

Coinbase stock price technical analysis 

The daily chart shows that the COIN stock price has retreated in the past few months, moving from last year’s high of $443 to $240 today.

It recently formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average moved below the 200-day one. A death cross is one of the most common bearish reversal patterns in technical analysis.

It is now forming the bearish pennant pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle pattern. 

Also, it has moved below the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement level at $257, and remained below the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the most likely COIN stock price forecast is bearish, with the next key target level being the psychological level at $100. The bearish outlook will become invalid if Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies bounce back.