Formula 1 Starts Second Half Of The 2025 Season With Major Drama

The Formula 1 summer break is always too long. This year, in particular, saw the first half of the season (14 races) take a three-week pause with the World Drivers’ Championship (WDC) as close as it’s been all season and the closest we’ve seen since Hamilton and Verstappen in 2021. We were more than eager to see how the inter-team battle between McLaren drivers Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris would play out for the Dutch Grand Prix, which marks the first of 10 races to the finish in Abu Dhabi. Would Norris continue his string of luck from Silverstone and Hungary, which allowed him to close the points gap? Would Piastri finally make a mistake and put a single foot wrong since Australia? These were the burning questions.

I initially considered writing a mid-season recap before the Dutch Grand Prix, but I had a sense we’d learn a lot from this race and get a better sense for the rest of the season had in store for us. I think that was a good call, as it proved to be one of the most interesting races of the season, despite being one with very few overtakes and no lead changes. My lens for the 2025 season is a set of predictions I made at the outset and a review of these after the first five races. So let’s start with those.

1. Lots of Crashes and Red Flags

My theory was that a tight championship battle and a bunch of capable rookies seeking to prove themselves would make for a spicy season. This has played out for the most part, but the Dutch Grand Prix saw contact between Russell and Leclerc; Lawson and Sainz; and Antonelli and Leclerc, where Leclerc crashed and did not finish. Stroll crashed in both free practice and qualifying, and Hamilton crashed out of the race on his own.

2. Verstappen Wins His Fifth WDC

The combined pace of the McLarens and turmoil at Red Bull conspired to undermine this potential outcome. Nevertheless, Verstappen continues to outdrive the RB21, qualifying third and finishing second at Zandvoort. His overtake of Norris at the start was all-but guaranteed, partly by starting on the soft tires but also because he’s a vastly better driver than Norris. He nearly spun out of turn three on the dirty side of the track and yet kept the spot for several more laps.

3. Lewis Hamilton Struggles at Ferrari

While this has proved to be a spot-on prediction, I take no satisfaction in being right. It appeared Hamilton may have been bouncing back with a strong qualifying performance. Alas, a very rare unforced error on Hamilton’s part sent him into the barriers early in the race. If this continues, it’s entirely likely someone else will have his seat for 2026.

4. McLaren Wins the WCC

This was a pretty easy and obvious prediction. However, I’ve maintained since last year that Piastri was the better driver of the pair and the only one suited to winning a championship. This was fully on display at Zandvoort. Norris was fastest in each of the practice sessions and then through the first part of qualifying. When it actually mattered, though, Piastri put it on provisional pole position by 12 thousands of a second over Norris. Neither driver improved on their second attempt, so Piastri took pole. Come Sunday, Piastri controlled the race from the start, navigating multiple safety car restarts and was on his way to victory when disaster struck for Norris with about 10 laps to go. His engine failed. This was unfortunate for Norris, but luck tends to return to the mean. Norris was gifted the win by the stewards at Silverstone and then again by a roll of the dice on strategy in Hungary—when Piastri had clearly been the better driver at both races and deserved the wins. But that’s how racing goes.

5. Franco Colapinto Replaces Jack Doohan

This prediction was spot-on, wherein Colapinto replaced Doohan at Imola after six races. His performance has not been spectacular, though he did finish P12 in Zandvoort to Gasly’s P16. The pressure is on to consistently beat his teammate while not crashing if he has any chance of keeping the seat for 2026.

6. Williams Is The Big Upside Surprise

Albon finished P5 with Sainz at P14 at Zandvoort. The team sits at P5 in the Constructors’ Championship with 80 points. Aston Martin and Racing Bulls are chasing with 62 and 60 points, respectively. This is the great battle of the midfield, especially given that rookie Isaac Hadjar scored his first F1 podium at the Dutch Grand Prix, and the Aston Martins appear fast with both drivers finishing the points.