Ondas (ONDS) Stock Drops 6% Despite Raising Q4 Revenue Guidance

TLDR

• Ondas raised Q4 2025 revenue guidance to $29.1M–$30.1M, up from $27M–$29M
• Full year 2025 revenue guidance lifted to $49.7M–$50.7M, beating prior range of $47.6M–$49.6M
• Q4 net income expected between $82.9M and $83.4M, boosted by a ~$102M warrant liability fair value gain
• Cash and cash equivalents stood at ~$551M as of Dec 31, 2025; company raised ~$1B on Jan 12, 2026
• ONDS stock fell nearly 6% despite the upward revision; 2026 revenue guidance reiterated at $170M–$180M

Ondas (ONDS) raised its fourth quarter and full year 2025 revenue guidance on Friday, but the stock still dropped close to 6% in morning trading.

Ondas Holdings Inc., ONDS

The company now expects Q4 2025 revenue between $29.1 million and $30.1 million. That’s above the prior range of $27 million to $29 million, which was issued back in January 2026.

Both figures beat analyst consensus. Wall Street had been looking for Q4 revenue of around $27.77 million and full year revenue of $48.37 million.

Full year 2025 revenue is now expected to land between $49.7 million and $50.7 million. That tops the earlier guidance range of $47.6 million to $49.6 million.

The revision came after the company wrapped up additional financial close procedures following its March 9 preliminary results. Management updated accounting estimates tied to the net change in fair value of its warrant liability.

That adjustment is expected to produce a net gain of around $102 million for both Q4 and the full year. It’s that gain, largely a non-cash item, that’s driving the strong net income numbers.

Q4 net income is projected between $82.9 million and $83.4 million. Full year 2025 net income is seen between $50.4 million and $50.9 million.

On the EBITDA side, the picture is less rosy. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 is expected between -$9.9 million and -$9.4 million. The full year adjusted EBITDA is projected between -$31.5 million and -$31 million.

Cash Position

Ondas ended 2025 with roughly $551 million in cash and cash equivalents. On January 12, 2026, the company raised approximately $1 billion, leaving it with a current ratio of 15.3.

That’s a strong liquidity cushion by any measure.

2026 Outlook

Ondas reiterated its full year 2026 revenue guidance of $170 million to $180 million. That figure excludes any new acquisitions announced in 2026.

The company has been active on the M&A front. Recent moves include a joint venture with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG for autonomous drone defense systems, the acquisition of INDO Earth Moving Ltd. under a $140 million military contract, and full ownership of 4M Defense Ltd. after buying out the remaining 30% of Chirokka Holding Ltd.

ONDS stock has surged around 1,458% over the past year.

Final Q4 and full year 2025 results are expected on March 25, 2026, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

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