Bitcoin rebounded 4% after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled intentions to de-escalate tensions with Iran and move toward negotiations. The move triggered a rapid reaction across global markets, with risk assets surging within minutes.
Oil prices plunged 14% to $85 per barrel for WTI, the S&P 500 jumped 3%, and Bitcoin followed with a sharp gain. However, despite the strong reaction, derivatives market data suggests that traders remain cautious and unconvinced.
Futures and options indicators continue to signal hesitation. Notably, the $68,000 level is still not widely viewed as a reliable support level, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rebound.
Futures And Options Reveal Growing Skepticism
On March 23, the annual premium for three-month Bitcoin futures stood at just 2%, well below the neutral range of 4-8%. This premium typically reflects demand for leveraged long positions, and its current level indicates weak appetite for bullish exposure.
This cautious positioning has persisted even during recent price increases. When Bitcoin briefly moved above $76,000 on March 17, futures data showed little improvement in sentiment.
Options Market Signals Low Confidence
Options data paints a similar picture. On the Deribit exchange, a Bitcoin call option with an $80,000 strike price expiring on April 24 was priced at 0.017 BTC (around $1,207).
With implied volatility at 48% and roughly one month until expiration, the market assigns only a 20% probability of Bitcoin reaching that level. For an asset known for strong bullish sentiment, this is a notably conservative outlook.
Macro Pressure And Oil Keep Markets On Edge
The broader macroeconomic backdrop continues to weigh on sentiment. While equities rebounded sharply, the Federal Reserve has provided little indication that monetary easing is imminent. Elevated interest rates continue to pressure risk assets by increasing borrowing costs and reducing liquidity.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain a key driver. Although initial optimism followed Trump’s comments, conflicting signals from Iran have reintroduced uncertainty.
Oil prices remain a critical variable. As long as crude trades near elevated levels, inflation concerns and economic risks are likely to persist. Any disruption in key supply routes could quickly shift market sentiment again.
Gold has also sent unusual signals, falling 21% over a ten-day period, a rare move for a traditional safe-haven asset. This suggests that investors are struggling to find stability across asset classes.
Bitcoin’s recent test of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on March 23 held as support, offering a modest positive signal. However, after five months of downward pressure, this alone is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
For now, the data is clear: while headlines can drive short-term rallies, derivatives markets are not yet backing a sustained move higher. Without stronger confirmation from institutional positioning, the current rebound may remain fragile.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/15669/bitcoin-price-jumps-4-after-trump-the-rally-is-back-but-trust-is-not
