Florida Dems projected to pull off another shock upset in Trump's home state

Florida Democrats followed up their bombshell victory in President Donald Trump's home state house district by narrowly flipping a state senate district in the Tampa area.

According to Decision Desk and the Florida Phoenix, Democrat Brian Nathan, a veteran and local union leader, has defeated state Rep. Josie Tomkow, giving Democrats two out of the three Florida special elections of the evening.

The result was a significant upset, as Republicans had a massive fundraising and organizing advantage in the district.

"SD 14 is a swing district, but there is not a safe Republican in anything short of Trump +20," Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics wrote on X. "@JosieTomkow is a personable, telegenic candidate. Worked her a-- off. Omnipresent on TV. This is environment."

The win is a new breath of life for Democrats in Florida, where the party has endured years of losses and a collapse of party registration. The national party barely contested the state in the 2024 presidential election, leading to a double-digit GOP blowout win nearly as large as their victory in Texas.

It also follows Democrats winning the mayoral race in Miami for the first time in three decades, gaining new political power in a city that has historically had far more Republican leadership than other cities of comparable size.