SpaceX IPO threatens Bitcoin as analysts warn of capital drain

Bitcoin remained under pressure near $61,750 as analysts warned that the upcoming SpaceX IPO could divert capital away from the crypto market at a time when ETF outflows and weak sentiment are already weighing on the market.

According to market data, Bitcoin (BTC) price has fallen about 14% over the past week, while the total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped another 1.1% over the past 24 hours to $2.2 trillion. The decline comes as traders continue reducing exposure across derivatives markets, with Bitcoin open interest falling 0.57% to approximately $45 billion.

Sentiment has also deteriorated sharply. Data from Alternative’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index showed a reading of 9, marking another week in extreme fear territory as investors remain cautious amid growing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin sentiment deteriorates as ETF outflows mount

Institutional demand has also shown signs of weakening. Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $168.8 million so far this week. The products also saw withdrawals of $1.72 billion, $1.42 billion, and $1.26 billion during the previous three weeks, bringing total outflows over the four-week period to roughly $4.57 billion.

The sustained withdrawals have coincided with a decline in total net assets held by spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSoValue, combined assets under management fell from $104.29 billion in mid-May to $77.58 billion by June 9.

Additional on-chain data suggests the market may not have reached a capitulation phase typically associated with major cycle bottoms.

In a June 10 market update, CryptoQuant noted that realized losses totaled approximately 187,000 BTC over the past 30 days, below the roughly 400,000 BTC realized during the February panic and well below the 1.2 million BTC recorded following the FTX collapse.

Technical indicators also remain fragile. Bitcoin is trading near the Murrey Math support zone around $62,500, while a break below the nearby $59,375 support level could expose the market to deeper downside risks.

Momentum indicators continue to favor sellers, with the MACD remaining in bearish territory after a recent negative crossover. The widening gap between the MACD and signal lines suggests downward momentum has yet to fully weaken, increasing the risk of further losses if buyers fail to defend key support levels.

SpaceX IPO could compete for crypto liquidity

Against that backdrop, analysts are increasingly focused on the potential impact of SpaceX’s long-awaited public debut.

The aerospace company founded by Elon Musk is reportedly preparing a $75 billion public offering at a projected valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Reuters reported that about 30% of the offering could be reserved for retail investors, an unusually large allocation for an IPO of that size.

Some market participants believe the listing could attract capital that might otherwise flow into cryptocurrencies.

“Crypto is a funding currency for a lot of this,” Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at GSR, told Reuters. “We’ve got to find $75 billion for this IPO, and it’s got to come from somewhere.”

Thomas Puech, chief executive of crypto firm INDIGO, also told Reuters that the offering could divert funds away from digital assets in the short term because both markets compete for the same pool of risk capital.

According to Puech, artificial intelligence-related investments currently represent a more attractive trade for many growth-focused investors.

While there is no direct evidence that recent Bitcoin ETF outflows are being redirected toward SpaceX shares, analysts say the timing of the IPO could create another headwind for digital assets.

With institutional demand weakening, sentiment stuck in extreme fear territory, and on-chain data suggesting seller exhaustion has yet to emerge, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to additional liquidity pressures in the weeks ahead.