Kenya Warns of Rising El Niño and Flood Risks in 2026

For investors, lenders and infrastructure operators, the message is clear: dry conditions during the middle of the year could quickly give way to a much wetter and riskier environment during the October–December short-rains season.

A year of contrasting weather risks

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), citing guidance from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), says most forecasting models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during 2026.

According to the agency, the probability of El Niño occurring between June and August stands at around 80%. The likelihood of the phenomenon continuing through November is estimated at more than 90%.

This suggests that weather conditions could shift significantly during the second half of the year, creating a combination of drought and flood risks across different seasons.

Flood risk rises during the short rains

The greatest concern centres on the October–December short-rains season.

Historically, El Niño events are associated with above-average rainfall across much of East Africa. In Kenya, this often leads to flooding, transport disruptions and damage to critical infrastructure.

KMD has also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), currently neutral, could turn positive from July onwards. If a positive IOD develops alongside El Niño, rainfall levels could increase further during the short-rains period.

For infrastructure owners and developers, this combination raises the risk of damage to roads, bridges, drainage networks and electricity infrastructure, particularly in flood-prone regions. Urban areas with inadequate drainage systems could face heightened disruption.

Agriculture and insurance providers face a different set of challenges. Dry and hotter conditions during the first half of the year may affect crops and livestock, while excessive rainfall later in the year could trigger production losses, supply-chain disruptions and higher insurance claims.

What investors should watch

The current outlook gives businesses several months to prepare before the highest-risk period begins.

Investors, developers and lenders may want to review flood-risk assumptions, assess infrastructure resilience and adjust project timelines where necessary. Companies exposed to agriculture, logistics, insurance and utilities are likely to be particularly sensitive to changing weather conditions.

The key variable to monitor over the coming months will be whether the Indian Ocean Dipole turns positive and reinforces El Niño conditions. If that occurs, the probability of above-average rainfall and flooding during Kenya’s short-rains season could increase significantly.

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