While Bitcoin has historically reached new price peaks one year after halving events, one study finds that the primary driver of price movements remains global liquidity. The expert disclosed that there is no causal relationship between halvings and Bitcoin price movement while identifying a long-term threat to the network.
Bitcoin Halvings Do Not Drive Prices Upward, Says Expert
Cryptocurrency analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera has theorized that Bitcoin halvings are not the main drivers for price peaks for the largest cryptocurrency. Contrary to mainstream beliefs, Perera noted that Bitcoin’s all-time highs have followed major macroeconomic events, serving as a better indicator of price spikes.
He pointed out in a post that Bitcoin’s first halving came before the 2013 Cyprus banking crisis, in which depositors forfeited savings above 100,000 euros. Perera stated that the crisis served as “a live demonstration” of the problem Bitcoin was designed to address, driving the first wave of retail investors to the asset.
According to Perera, the second halving in July 2016 came amid the initial coin offering (ICO) boom and the extended run of post-2008 quantitative easing. The third halving in May 2020 came during the most aggressive monetary expansion in US Federal Reserve history, with its balance sheet surging to nearly $9 trillion.
Gleaning from the above, Perera surmised that major central bank liquidity events are the prime movers of Bitcoin price. He confirmed his theory by pointing to the Bank of Japan’s rate hike in August 2024, which triggered a 25% crash in BTC within 72 hours.
“After 16 years and 4 halvings, the data is finally conclusive,” said Perera. “Every single post-halving rally in Bitcoin history coincided with major central bank liquidity events. Not one can be isolated.”
Bitcoin Faces An Existential Threat
After arguing that global central bank liquidity is the main driver of all-time highs, the analyst noted that Bitcoin faces a major existential threat. For Perera, the pressing issue for Bitcoin is whether the fee market can sustain network security as subsidies approach zero at the last halving.
In the absence of block rewards, one paper theorizes that forking a wealthy block to steal rewards is a viable option for miners in a fee-only environment. The paper noted that no Proof-of-Work cryptocurrency has successfully relied solely on transaction fees for security, with several experts proposing “tail emissions” as a solution.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/expert-reveals-halvings-dont-move-bitcoin-global-liquidity-does/
