Bitcoin May Dip to $85K Before Rebound Amid Macro Events

• Bitcoin’s 2.4% decline post-Fed rate cut outpaced the Nasdaq’s 1.7% drop, highlighting its higher volatility.

• Over six months, BTC lost value amid broader market gains, challenging its role as a high-beta asset.

• Analysts from Glassnode predict potential dips to $85,500-$87,000 due to liquidation clusters and macro data volatility.

Discover why Bitcoin is lagging tech stocks in 2025 and what upcoming U.S. CPI and BoJ decisions mean for BTC price. Stay informed on crypto trends for smarter investing decisions today.

Why is Bitcoin Lagging Behind Tech Stocks in 2025?

Bitcoin has significantly underperformed compared to tech stocks throughout the second half of 2025, with its price declining by approximately 15% while the Nasdaq Composite surged 17%. This gap widened after the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate cut, where Bitcoin dropped 2.4% against the Nasdaq’s milder 1.7% fall. Factors include heightened market sensitivity to upcoming economic indicators and a decoupling from equity trends, leaving investors questioning BTC’s traditional correlation as a higher-beta tech proxy.

Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025 has diverged sharply from the robust performance of technology sectors. While innovation-driven equities benefited from sustained investor confidence, cryptocurrencies faced headwinds from regulatory uncertainties and global monetary policy shifts. Data from market trackers shows Bitcoin trading below $90,000 last week, even as broader indices held steady. This underperformance challenges the narrative that BTC amplifies tech market movements, prompting a reevaluation of its investment appeal in the current cycle.

The cryptocurrency’s price action reflects broader caution in risk assets. As investors await critical data releases, Bitcoin’s volatility has amplified downside risks, contrasting with the resilience of established tech firms. Nonetheless, on-chain metrics suggest underlying strength, with institutional holdings providing a potential floor for recovery.

Source: BTC vs. tech stocks (TradingView)

What Could Drive Bitcoin’s Recovery Against Tech Stocks?

Bitcoin’s potential rebound hinges on navigating upcoming macroeconomic events, including the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on December 18 and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision on December 19. These catalysts could either exacerbate selling pressure or catalyze a shift if outcomes align with market expectations. Glassnode analysts, drawing from historical patterns, note that past BoJ hikes have led to 20-30% BTC drops, but a 25 basis point increase is already priced in, limiting downside unless accompanied by hawkish guidance.

On-chain data reveals a bottoming phase for Bitcoin, with key support zones at $85,500-$87,000 targeted amid rising volatility. The Glassnode team emphasized, “Over the next few days, there is a major liquidation cluster at $85.5-87k. Considering the loaded macro data week ahead, this is a likely area to revisit as volatility picks up.” This level coincides with heightened trading activity, where liquidations could trigger short-term dips but also clear paths for upside if held.

Further bolstering recovery prospects, the $83,000 mark serves as the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, per Glassnode metrics. Holding this support could encourage institutional buying, setting up a rebound as ETF inflows stabilize. Analysts observe that small-cap equities’ range-bound behavior might indirectly support BTC, given correlations in risk-on environments.

Institutional perspectives remain optimistic. The Dubai-based Laser Digital Derivatives Trading Desk stated in a recent communication that, despite a resistance wall at $94,000, forthcoming U.S. labor and CPI data could pave the way for renewed long positions into 2026. They added, “These should clear the runway for participants to begin rebuilding long exposure into 2026. The combination of a new Fed chairman and upcoming liquidity regulations is likely to create a more constructive backdrop for risk assets.” This outlook underscores Bitcoin’s resilience, even amid current laggard status.

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s decoupling from the Nasdaq last week, dipping from $94,000 to under $90,000, underscores short-term caution but does not alter long-term fundamentals. Historical data from TradingView charts illustrates this divergence, with BTC failing to mirror tech sector gains. Experts like those at Glassnode project that if macro pressures ease, Bitcoin could revisit higher levels, potentially outpacing equities once liquidity improves.

The interplay between global central bank actions and cryptocurrency flows remains pivotal. For instance, the BoJ’s decision carries weight due to Japan’s influence on yen carry trades, which often spill into risk assets like BTC. Glassnode founders downplayed immediate impacts, stating, “The BoJ rate hike trade is the most overcrowded trade today. 25 bps hike is already priced in. The only negative outcome is a hawkish forward guidance.” This assessment aligns with broader market sentiment, where BTC’s bottoming phase could transition to accumulation if supports hold firm.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin Drop Below $83,000 Support in December 2025?

The $83,000 level, aligning with U.S. spot BTC ETF average cost bases, is a critical support zone. On-chain analysis from Glassnode indicates potential tests amid volatility from CPI and BoJ events, but holding this could trigger rebounds. Historical patterns suggest 20-30% corrections follow BoJ hikes, yet institutional buying may defend the floor effectively.

How Might the Bank of Japan Rate Decision Impact Bitcoin Price?

The BoJ’s December 19 decision could pressure Bitcoin if it introduces unexpected hawkish tones, potentially leading to yen strengthening and risk-off flows. A standard 25 basis point hike is anticipated, with minimal disruption expected unless guidance shifts aggressively. This event often amplifies BTC volatility, but experts view it as a short-term hurdle in a broader bullish 2026 outlook.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin Underperformance: BTC declined 15% in H2 2025 versus Nasdaq’s 17% gain, driven by macro sensitivities.
• Support Levels: Key zones at $83,000-$87,000 may see tests from liquidations, per Glassnode data.
• Future Outlook: Positive 2026 catalysts like Fed changes could boost BTC, encouraging long-term accumulation now.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s lag behind tech stocks in 2025 highlights temporary divergences amid macroeconomic uncertainties, but robust on-chain supports at $83,000 and expert insights from Glassnode and Laser Digital signal resilience. As U.S. CPI and BoJ decisions unfold, holding key levels could ignite recovery, positioning BTC for gains in a more favorable 2026 environment. Investors should monitor these developments closely to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the evolving crypto landscape.