NEO Technical Analysis Feb 14

Although NEO shows short-term recovery signals, it maintains the LH/LL structure; if the $2.9111 support breaks, bearish BOS may be triggered, while above $3.2394 it could give a bullish reversal signal with CHoCH.

Market Structure Overview

NEO’s current market structure exhibits the Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) pattern, reflecting the overall downtrend. The current price is at the $2.93 level, continuing to stay below EMA20 ($3.02) despite a 24-hour 2.70% increase. This confirms the short-term bearish structure. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, 2 supports/4 resistances on 1W. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and the $3.56 resistance forms a strong barrier. RSI is neutral at the 43 level, although the MACD histogram is positive, the overall structure is dominated by LH/LL. The market is maintaining its structural integrity by testing the recent swing low $2.9111, but caution is advised for altcoins due to BTC correlation.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, a Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is required. NEO’s recent rise from the $2.83 low to $2.97 may indicate a short-term HL formation, but it does not confirm a bullish trend without breaking the previous LH ($3.2394). The positive MACD histogram shows slight momentum improvement, and RSI has potential to move up from 43. A BOS above the $3.2394 swing high is necessary for bullish continuation; breaking this level could lead to a $4.5722 target (score:31/100). The current 2.70% 24h gain indicates local recovery but has not yet formed an overall HH/HL structure.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: Staying below the recent swing high $3.2394 (score:69/100) and approaching the swing low $2.9111 strengthens the LH pattern. Risk of LL toward $2.4160 is increasing (score:63/100). Supertrend is bearish and the structure below EMA20 signals bearish continuation. A bearish breakdown with a break of $2.9111 could extend to $1.4670 (score:22/100). On the 1W timeframe, dominance of 4 resistances creates challenges for an altcoin rally.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) confirms trend changes. Bullish BOS: Break and close above the $3.2394 swing high (invalidating the previous LH). This provides a transition to HL with CHoCH (Change of Character) and opens the path to $4.5722. Bearish BOS: Break of the $2.9111 swing low accelerates the descent to $2.4160 and $1.4670 with LL confirmation. In MTF, the 1D support/resistance balance is fragile; excess resistance on 3D could facilitate bearish BOS. These levels are structural invalidation points – price reaction determines the trend direction.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

The recent swing high $3.2394 (score:69/100) acts as resistance as LH and is a critical threshold for bullish BOS. A break above it disrupts the previous structure and initiates an HH pattern extending to $4.5722 (score:61/100). This level is the source of short-term selling pressure; it rejected at $2.97 in the 24h range.

Recent Swing Lows

The recent swing low $2.9111 (score:71/100) is the main support and LL test point. If it holds, there’s a chance for HL; if broken, bearish momentum increases and $2.4160 (score:63/100) becomes the next target. The 24h low $2.83 tested this structure but it held – monitor closely.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend at $69,785 level (+1.29% 24h), Supertrend bearish and dominance rising – warning for altcoins. If NEO breaks BTC supports at $68,840 / $65,415, it deepens LH/LL; NEO’s $2.9111 support may coincide with BTC below $68k. If BTC resistances $71,248 / $75,164 are surpassed, chances of bullish BOS in NEO increase, but the current BTC structure is pressuring NEO. BTC stabilization is essential for an altcoin rally; correlation is at +0.8+ level.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

The overall structure is bearish LH/LL; holding $2.9111 allows local HL but does not change without $3.2394 BOS. MTF resistance superiority increases downside risk, MACD positivity offers short-term relief. Watch: Bearish BOS below $2.9111 confirms LL, bullish CHoCH above $3.2394 starts HH. Market structures are dynamic; swing levels are pivots for trading. Details available in NEO Spot Analysis and NEO Futures Analysis.