- XRP exchange balances drop from about 3.8 billion to roughly 1.6 billion in 2025
- Over 1 billion XRP left exchanges in three weeks as supply on platforms thins
- Triangle pattern maps a 16% move with targets near $2.40 to $2.45 and $3
XRP token’s market supply on exchanges now looks far lower than usual. Glassnode data shows that more than 1 billion XRP left exchanges within three weeks, which drove the total exchange balance from roughly 3.8 billion at the start of the year to nearly 1.6 billion by December 2025. This shift has traders watching for an XRP breakout as exchange supply falls.
According to analyst Diana, this drop places the supply line under the price curve for the first time on record. The fall continued despite prices dropping from the $3.40 zone in October to the $2-$2.10 zone in December.
The trend shows that holders are removing tokens regardless of near term weakness, a pattern traders often link to larger players accumulating into a thin order book on exchanges.
A market with fewer tokens on exchanges often delivers faster moves once buyers step in. XRP’s current situation resembles the early signs of a supply crunch.
Related: Ripple’s RLUSD Surges Past $1 Billion Market Cap With Multi-Chain Strategy Driving Growth
XRP Price Analysis: 16% Move Next?
Ali Martinez shared a 4H chart which shows XRP inside a symmetrical triangle. The upper trend line is near $2.32, while the lower trend line rises from near $1.88. As per CoinMarketCap, the price sits close to $2.05-$2.06.
Martinez said that a breakout of the triangle pattern on the 4H chart could result in a move of roughly 16%.
On the other hand, the weekly MACD stays slightly under the signal line, which indicates slow momentum rather than a strong shift. RSI holds near 41–47, close to the lower half of the range.
If XRP breaks upward from the triangle, the first bullish target sits near the 16% projection, i.e., the $2.40-$2.45 zone. If bulls continue to dominate, Fibonacci levels show a potential expansion toward the $3 region and later toward $3.60 ((1.618 Fib level).
However, in case of a pullback, if the pattern breaks down, the first bearish zone sits near $1.88. A deeper drop could result in a retest of $1.70–$1.75. Also, a loss of this zone may open the path toward the $1.50 area.
Related: XRP Price Prediction: Market Compression Signals a Potential Break Ahead
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Source: https://coinedition.com/xrp-supply-on-exchanges-thins-as-triangle-pattern-points-to-breakout/
