Supply Shock Meets BoJ Rate Fears

• Bitcoin and altcoins dip as markets price in a possible Bank of Japan rate hike.
• Seven major crypto projects face token unlocks between December 15 and December 21.
• Aster, LayerZero and Arbitrum lead unlocks, increasing short-term supply and volatility risks.

The cryptocurrency market started trading lower this week, with most major tokens slipping into the red. Bitcoin hovered near $89,300, down around 1% on the day, while Ethereum traded close to $3,119 with losses. Other large-cap tokens such as BNB, XRP and Solana also shows mild declines.

Analysts pointed to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as the primary macro driver. With a policy decision due next week, prediction markets on Polymarket now assign a 98.2% probability to a rate hike. A stronger Yen typically unwinds the “carry trade,” historically acting as a dampener for global risk assets, including crypto.

Token Unlock Shock Adds to Near-Term Pressure

Alongside macro headwinds, the market is also preparing for a wave of token unlocks scheduled for the coming week. Token unlocks increase circulating supply and can create short-term selling pressure, especially when market sentiment is already weak.

Source: X

Data from CryptoRank shows that seven projects will see notable unlock events between December 15 and December 21.

Related: Crypto Market at a Turning Point as BTC Stalls, ETH Tests Support, XRP Nears Breakout

ASTER Leads Weekly Unlocks

Aster is set to record the largest unlock of the week, with tokens worth about $75.36 million scheduled to be released. This represents roughly 3.4% of its market capitalization, making it one of the important events this week.

LayerZero and Arbitrum in Focus

LayerZero will unlock around $37.42 million worth of tokens, equal to about 10.3% of its market cap. Arbitrum follows with a $19.78 million unlock, representing about 1.65% of its market value.

Both projects are widely held, and the market impact will depend on how much of the newly unlocked supply is sold.

One user stressed on the importance of these unclocks and said, “$75M on $ASTER and $37M on $ZRO aren’t small numbers, supply events often define short-term price action more than narratives.”

Mid-Sized Unlocks Across Multiple Tokens

Vana is set to unlock approximately $17.41 million worth of tokens, nearly 20% of its market capitalization. Esports platform Yooldo will see about $17.22 million unlocked, equal to around 25.9% of its market cap.

Stablecoin-linked project STBL will release tokens worth about $16.12 million, a significant 57.7% of its market cap, while Merlin Chain is scheduled to unlock roughly $16.11 million.

Related: Bitcoin Faces Likely Mid-December Pullback Amid Recurring Timing Pattern