Treasury Buying Fails To Shift Market Psychology

• Bitcoin remains trapped in a descending triangle, trading below all major EMAs with sellers defending every rebound.
• Spot outflows persist, signaling ongoing distribution rather than accumulation despite price stabilization attempts.
• Failure to reclaim $88,500–$90,000 keeps downside risk elevated, with $85,000 as the next breakdown trigger.

Bitcoin price today trades near $86,200, holding just above recent lows after another failed attempt to reclaim broken trend resistance. Price remains compressed inside a tightening structure, with sellers defending every bounce while spot outflows continue to drain liquidity. The setup keeps pressure firmly on the $86,000 support zone as the market searches for direction.

Descending Structure Keeps Sellers In Control

On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains locked beneath a well-defined descending trendline that has capped every recovery since the October peak. The structure has evolved into a contracting triangle, with lower highs pressing against a gradually rising support base. This pattern reflects indecision on the surface, but the broader context favors sellers.

Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages. The 20-day EMA sits near $90,250, followed by the 50-day EMA at $95,100. The 100-day EMA near $100,600 and the 200-day EMA above $102,800 remain far overhead. This stacked EMA alignment confirms that rallies are corrective, not trend forming.

The Supertrend remains bearish and positioned well above price, reinforcing that downside momentum has not been invalidated. Until Bitcoin can reclaim at least the 20-day EMA, sellers maintain structural control.

Spot Outflows Signal Ongoing Distribution

Flow data continues to work against buyers. Recent sessions show persistent spot outflows, with daily netflows remaining negative despite price stabilization attempts. On December 16, Bitcoin recorded roughly $38 million in net outflows, extending a broader pattern that has dominated much of the past month.

Sustained outflows during consolidation phases often signal distribution rather than accumulation. Capital is leaving the spot market instead of positioning for upside, which helps explain why rebounds have lacked follow-through. Without a shift in flows, upside moves remain vulnerable to selling pressure.

This behavior aligns with the broader price action. Each bounce toward $90,000 has been met with renewed supply, suggesting larger participants are using strength to reduce exposure.

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Intraday Momentum Attempts To Stabilize

Shorter timeframes show early signs of stabilization, but no confirmation of a reversal. On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin recently flushed toward the $85,500 area before finding temporary support. Price has since moved sideways, forming a narrow base just above $86,000.

Momentum indicators reflect relief, not strength. RSI has rebounded from oversold conditions but remains below neutral, while MACD is still negative despite flattening. This combination typically appears during pauses within downtrends rather than at durable bottoms.

For intraday structure to improve, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $88,500 to $89,000 zone and hold it on closing basis. That area marks the breakdown point from the most recent impulsive selloff. Failure to do so keeps the risk skewed lower.

Treasury Buying Fails To Shift Market Psychology

Recent corporate accumulation has not altered short-term sentiment. Strategy disclosed another $980 million Bitcoin purchase, lifting its holdings above 671,000 BTC. The buying reinforces long-term conviction, but it has not translated into immediate price support.

More importantly, the firm’s BTC Yield turned negative for the first time in years, signaling that dilution has outpaced Bitcoin accumulation on a per-share basis. That shift weakens the narrative that aggressive treasury buying is inherently accretive. For the market, it underscores that structural demand must come from broad participation, not isolated balance sheet activity.

Bitcoin’s reaction confirms that view. Price continued to slide despite the headline purchase, highlighting that flows and technical structure currently matter more than individual accumulation events.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase defined by lower highs, negative flows, and compressed price action. The bullish case requires a clean reclaim of $92,000 followed by a close above the 20-day EMA with improving spot inflows. That would signal that buyers are regaining control.

The bearish case is straightforward. A daily close below $85,000 would confirm a breakdown from the triangle and expose deeper downside toward $82,000 and potentially $78,000.

Until one of those levels gives way, Bitcoin stays trapped in a tightening range where sellers continue to control momentum and buyers remain reactive rather than decisive.

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