Bitcoin Could Drop to $75K Before True Bottom, Santiment Founder Says

Social media sentiment suggests insufficient fear for market capitulation

Contrarian Analysis

Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich suggests Bitcoin could still fall to around $75,000 before reaching a true market bottom. His reasoning centers on an unconventional indicator: crypto traders have not displayed sufficient fear on social media platforms.

The analysis highlights how sentiment metrics can provide insight into market cycles.

The Fear Factor

Market bottoms historically coincide with peak pessimism. When social media floods with panic, capitulation, and declarations that crypto is dead, contrarian investors often view this as a buying signal.

Balashevich observes that current social media sentiment lacks the extreme negativity typically present at cycle lows. Traders remain relatively composed, suggesting the market has not yet experienced the emotional washout that precedes sustainable recoveries.

Santiment specializes in on-chain and social analytics, tracking metrics across platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram to gauge market psychology.

Why $75,000

The $75,000 level represents a significant support zone based on historical price action and technical analysis. A decline to this range would constitute a substantial correction from recent highs while remaining above previous cycle peaks.

Such a move could generate the widespread fear currently absent from social channels. Retail capitulation at lower prices would create conditions Balashevich considers necessary for a genuine bottom.

Sentiment as Indicator

Social media sentiment analysis has gained credibility as a market tool. Extreme greed often precedes corrections while extreme fear frequently marks accumulation opportunities.

The current lack of fear suggests traders maintain hope for quick recoveries, a mindset typically present before further downside rather than at ultimate lows.

Whether Balashevich's projection proves accurate remains uncertain, but his framework offers a reminder that market psychology plays a crucial role in determining cycle turning points.