Crypto Market Rally on Hold? T-Bill Yields Hint at February 2026 Reset

Key Insights:

• The crypto market shows early signs of support, but stablecoin inflows are still down by about half.
• Federal Reserve rate cuts may start in March, which could act as the first real trigger for fresh demand.
• T-bill redemptions in February may free up money and help the crypto market form a clearer bottom.

The crypto market is trying to recover. Yet, the conditions that usually help a rally are not here yet. Bitcoin stays in a narrow range near $87,000. Trading volumes are low. Stablecoin inflows are weak. And global financial conditions are still tight. Right now, it feels like the market is waiting for a clear signal instead of choosing a direction.

This is why many analysts say the next real chance for a strong move might start later, not now. March is becoming the month everyone is watching.

Bonds Hint at a February Bottom First for the Crypto Market

A bond is a financial tool where people lend money to the government for a small profit. Many traders are watching T-bill yields because they show where big money feels safe.

When yields stay high, investors prefer safety instead of taking risk in crypto. When yields slow down or fall, money can move back to assets like Bitcoin.

The current T-bill chart shows a pattern that appeared in past cycles before a recovery. It suggests a possible bottom in February if conditions continue the same way. This does not confirm a bottom, but it shows where pressure may start to reduce.

This connects with crypto. When safe yields become less attractive, crypto becomes more attractive again. For now, the bond market is saying, “not yet.”

Fed Rate Cuts Look More Likely in March

Interest rates control how cheap or expensive money is. High rates make borrowing expensive, so people reduce risk. Low rates make borrowing easier, so people take more risks.

The Federal Reserve released new meeting notes, and they clearly show no rush to cut rates. Rate cuts before March are unlikely. Some estimates even point to April if inflation does not fall soon.

Crypto usually reacts when money becomes cheaper because new money and new loans often enter the market. Right now, the crypto market is stuck between two feelings: hope for future cuts and fear that cuts will be late.

If rate cut expectations lock in for March, crypto might start moving up before the actual announcement. This happened at the start of the 2020 cycle, when lower rates helped crypto recover. Here, “start moving” does not mean a breakout. It means a slow and careful rise.

Until that happens, the market has fewer tools to create a strong rally.

Stablecoin Inflows Still Weak

Stablecoins are like “cash” for crypto. When stablecoins move to exchanges, it usually means buyers are ready. When stablecoin inflows fall, it usually means less fresh money is waiting to buy.

Right now, daily stablecoin inflows are almost 50% lower compared to August. The highest daily inflow in August was around $10.20 billion, and today the inflow is closer to $5.97 billion. This is a very large gap.

This drop does not mean the cycle is finished. It simply means the market is waiting. Many traders want a signal before moving money in. Rate cuts or a clear macro change may become that signal.

If stablecoin inflows slowly rise again while T-bill yields fall and rate cut expectations increase, that would be the first time in months when conditions improve together. That combination is the kind that often helps the crypto market form a base and grow from it.

The next two months may look slow, and that is normal in this part of a cycle. This does not erase future upside. It builds the foundation for it.

There are three main signs that can help confirm strength:

• The first is bond yields turning lower.
• The second is confirmation of rate cuts in March or soon after.
• The third is stablecoin inflows rising again from the current levels.

All these need to work together for the crypto market to attempt a possible upmove, without the usual roadblocks.