Outlook remains cautious – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts anticipate that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote. The report highlights that the trajectory of inflation and the voting dynamics will be crucial for market movements. There is a preference for long positions in MPC contracts, and while GBP is favored against the USD, there is a bearish outlook against the EUR.

Market focus on inflation trajectory

“We expect the MPC to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a 6-3 vote. Guidance will likely continue to lean on slack building in the economy but highlight the tight margin of votes we should keep seeing in future easing decisions.”

“Rates: The key focus for markets will remain the trajectory of inflation as well as the skew of votes/opinions. We continue to favor longs in MPC contracts.”

“FX: Q1 tends to be strong for US data seasonality, and we can see some USD bounce back vs the GBP. Structurally, we like GBP upside vs the USD but downside vs the EUR.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)