Next week's macro outlook: New tariff red line triggers the "final battle"
PANews reported on August 2nd that market risk sentiment was optimistic this week, as reports of a trade breakthrough between the EU and the US triggered a sharp rise in global markets. Consequently, the US dollar was strongly sought after, while the euro and yen fell significantly as the US trade position improved and funds rotated into US dollar assets. The confusing non-farm payroll report, accompanied by mixed revisions, impacted various asset classes. Bonds and gold rallied due to safe-haven demand. Gold surged $40 after the non-farm payroll report, erasing all previous losses and closing the week at $3,363 per ounce, up 0.79%. The following are key market points to watch in the new week:
Tuesday 21:45, the final value of the US July S&P Global Services PMI
At 03:10 on Thursday, Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed and a 2027 FOMC voter, delivered a speech.
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 2nd
At 10:00 PM on Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat.
At 23:00 on Thursday, the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation forecast for July
At 22:20 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussallem will deliver a speech
The new tariffs will not take effect until August 7th, instead of the previous date of August 1st, giving countries another window to try to negotiate a reduction in tariffs. Furthermore, while two governors voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, the overall tone of the statement and Powell's comments was very neutral, suggesting that while the Fed has left the door open for a September rate cut, it has not ruled out raising rates if higher tariffs and a tightening labor market lead to further inflation.
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