The flagship cryptocurrency has come under renewed selling pressure, extending a slide that has left market participants cautious about any near-term rebound. TheThe flagship cryptocurrency has come under renewed selling pressure, extending a slide that has left market participants cautious about any near-term rebound. The

Bitcoin’s Shot at $90K by March Is Slim

2026/02/06 06:41
Okuma süresi: 6 dk
Bitcoin's Shot At $90k By March Is Slim

The flagship cryptocurrency has come under renewed selling pressure, extending a slide that has left market participants cautious about any near-term rebound. The latest move comes as a combination of softer U.S. job data and renewed concerns about AI-sector capital expenditure weigh on risk appetite. The price retreat follows a roughly 30% decline from a late-January high after a failed attempt to push above the $90,500 level on Jan. 28. As macro cues accumulate, derivatives markets hint at a cautious stance, suggesting that a rapid snapback may be unlikely in the near term as investors digest the evolving risk backdrop.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin slipped below $63,000, entering a seasonally volatile zone as macro data challenges persist and AI-sector investment concerns mount.
  • Options markets imply a relatively low probability of a swift rally back to $90,000 by March, with pricing signaling a muted upside scenario.
  • Concerns over quantum computing risks and the prospect of forced liquidations by debt-funded Bitcoin holders have amplified risk-off sentiment.
  • Public-company Bitcoin holdings and equity-structure dynamics show growing strain, as some firms face large unrealized gaps between market value and cost bases.
  • Broader tech and AI narratives—capped by elevated capital expenditure plans and supply-chain bottlenecks—contribute to a cautious market tone across traditional equities as well as crypto.
  • Risk-off conditions intensified after a run of negative headlines across large-cap names and an uptick in January layoffs across the U.S. economy.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, TRI, PYPL, HOOD, APP, QCOM, MSTR, MPJPY

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The ongoing price drift below key support levels reflects a softer near-term outlook and heightened risk-off sentiment.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Caution remains warranted as macro headlines and AI investment cycles influence liquidity and risk appetite.

Market context: The current environment blends macro fragility with sector-specific dynamics in AI and tech, creating a cautious tone for risk assets. Liquidity conditions and derivative positioning continue to shape price action as investors weigh near-term catalysts against longer-term macro trends.

Why it matters

The forces weighing on Bitcoin are not isolated to crypto alone. A broader risk-off mood is filtering through global markets, with technology and AI-driven narratives playing a central role. The debilitation of a near-term revival above important thresholds underscores a structural challenge for the asset class: while institutional interest remains, upside momentum has been tempered by macro headwinds and the fear of swift retracements triggered by external shocks.

On the derivative side, traders are pricing in relatively modest odds of a dramatic rally, with call options at elevated strike levels pricing in limited upside potential. For context, on the Deribit exchange, a March 27 call option with a strike of $90,000 traded at around $522, suggesting that market participants assign a low probability to a rapid surge in price in the weeks ahead. The corresponding put options reveal a sense of potential downside risk priced into the market as well, underscoring a balanced but cautious risk-reward calculus in the near term. These dynamics echo the broader tension between bull-case scenarios and risk-off realities facing cryptos amid evolving macro data and capital allocation concerns.

Bitcoin/USD vs. Thomson Reuters, PayPal, Robinhood, Applovin and Silver/USD. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Beyond price dynamics, a suite of fundamental developments has intensified risk aversion. Quantum computing fears—specifically worries that advanced quantum systems could threaten private keys—have led some investors to rethink crypto exposure. In mid-January, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, arguing that quantum threats introduce a material tail risk to hodling strategies and that the market could respond abruptly to new information. While such positioning shifts reflect sentiment rather than immediate price catalysts, they contribute to a cautious macro backdrop for crypto markets.

On the corporate front, the landscape of on-chain exposure among publicly traded firms remains a focal point. MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains the largest holder with on-chain BTC reserves, but the company’s enterprise value has fallen to around $53.3 billion while its cost basis sits near $54.2 billion. Similar gaps exist for Metaplanet (MPJPY US), where the market cap stood at roughly $2.95 billion against an acquisition cost of about $3.78 billion. The potential for a prolonged bear phase to force such entities to sell reserve holdings to service debt has investors watching balance sheets closely, even as executives underscore long-term conviction in the technology and underlying use cases.

Additional macro factors are weighing on risk assets as well. The week’s early data showed broad risk-off momentum, with silver, often viewed as a risk-off asset, retreating sharply after reaching an all-time high in late January. While crypto markets are distinct from traditional commodities, the cross-asset pull—driven by higher risk sentiment and macro uncertainties—helps explain the correlation in recent weeks between the performance of large-cap equities and crypto assets.

In the broader tech arena, larger dynamics around AI investment cadence are shaping the indirect risk profile for crypto markets. Google’s parent company signaled that capital expenditure in 2026 will be materially higher than in 2025, highlighting a continued push into data-center infrastructure. At the same time, Qualcomm reported softer guidance as supplier capacity shifts toward high-bandwidth memory for data centers, underscoring a delicate balance between innovation cycles and near-term profitability. Analysts anticipate that AI spending could deliver longer payoff horizons than many investors currently expect, a factor that compounds uncertainty for risk-sensitive assets, including crypto.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin appears unlikely to stage a rapid rebound toward the $90,000 region in the near term. The price action around $62,000–$63,000 has become a focal point for traders watching for a sustainable bottom or a capitulatory event that could usher in a new phase for accumulation. The path forward for the asset will likely depend on a combination of macro resilience, continued liquidity, and the pace at which AI-capital expenditure and its supply-chain constraints unwind.

What to watch next

  • Upcoming U.S. payrolls data and macro indicators, which could shape risk sentiment and liquidity conditions.
  • Derivative flows and March expiry activity (including BTC options around key strike levels like $90,000).
  • Updates on AI-capex realization and supply-chain bottlenecks affecting tech stocks and related risk assets.
  • Monitor developments around large on-chain BTC holdings and any potential forced-liquidation events tied to debt covenants.
  • Central bank signals and policy expectations that could influence risk appetite across crypto and traditional markets.

Sources & verification

  • Deribit options data for March 27 BTC calls and puts, including the $90,000 strike call and $50,000 strike put pricing.
  • Public-company BTC holdings and balance-sheet implications (on-chain context and company-level risk exposure).
  • Jefferies note referencing a reduced Bitcoin allocation due to perceived quantum-computing risks.
  • January layoff data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas (108,435 layoffs) and related macro commentary.
  • Alphabet (EXCHANGE: GOOG) capex trajectory for 2026 and Qualcomm (EXCHANGE: QCOM) guidance signals; broader AI-funding implications.

Bitcoin under pressure in a cautious macro environment

This article was originally published as Bitcoin’s Shot at $90K by March Is Slim on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.

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The Role of Blockchain in Building Safer Web3 Gaming Ecosystems

The Role of Blockchain in Building Safer Web3 Gaming Ecosystems

The gaming industry is in the midst of a historic shift, driven by the rise of Web3. Unlike traditional games, where developers and publishers control assets and dictate in-game economies, Web3 gaming empowers players with ownership and influence. Built on blockchain technology, these ecosystems are decentralized by design, enabling true digital asset ownership, transparent economies, and a future where players help shape the games they play. However, as Web3 gaming grows, security becomes a focal point. The range of security concerns, from hacking to asset theft to vulnerabilities in smart contracts, is a significant issue that will undermine or erode trust in this ecosystem, limiting or stopping adoption. Blockchain technology could be used to create security processes around secure, transparent, and fair Web3 gaming ecosystems. We will explore how security is increasing within gaming ecosystems, which challenges are being overcome, and what the future of security looks like. Why is Security Important in Web3 Gaming? Web3 gaming differs from traditional gaming in that players engage with both the game and assets with real value attached. Players own in-game assets that exist as tokens or NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), and can trade and sell them. These game assets usually represent significant financial value, meaning security failure could represent real monetary loss. In essence, without security, the promises of owning “something” in Web3, decentralized economies within games, and all that comes with the term “fair” gameplay can easily be eroded by fraud, hacking, and exploitation. This is precisely why the uniqueness of blockchain should be emphasized in securing Web3 gaming. How Blockchain Ensures Security in Web3 Gaming?
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  2. Decentralized Infrastructure Blockchain networks also have a distributed architecture where game data is stored in a worldwide network of nodes, making them much less susceptible to centralised points of failure and attacks. This decentralised approach makes it exponentially more difficult to hijack systems or even shut off the game’s economy.
  3. Secure Transactions with Cryptography Whether a player buys an NFT or trades their in-game tokens for other items or tokens, the transactions are enforced by cryptographic algorithms, ensuring secure, verifiable, and irreversible transactions and eliminating the risks of double-spending or fraudulent trades.
  4. Smart Contract Automation Smart contracts automate the enforcement of game rules and players’ economic exchanges for the developer, eliminating the need for intermediaries or middlemen, and trust for the developer. For example, if a player completes a quest that promises a reward, the smart contract will execute and distribute what was promised.
  5. Anti-Cheating and Fair Gameplay The naturally transparent nature of blockchain makes it extremely simple for anyone to examine a specific instance of gameplay and verify the economic outcomes from that play. Furthermore, multi-player games that enforce smart contracts on things like loot sharing or win sharing can automate and measure trustlessness and avoid cheating, manipulations, and fraud by developers.
  6. Cross-Platform Security Many Web3 games feature asset interoperability across platforms. This interoperability is made viable by blockchain, which guarantees ownership is maintained whenever assets transition from one game or marketplace to another, thereby offering protection to players who rely on transfers for security against fraud. Key Security Dangers in Web3 Gaming Although blockchain provides sound first principles of security, the Web3 gaming ecosystem is susceptible to threats. Some of the most serious threats include:
Smart Contract Vulnerabilities: Smart contracts that are poorly written or lack auditing will leave openings for exploitation and thereby result in asset loss. Phishing Attacks: Unintentionally exposing or revealing private keys or signing transactions that are not possible to reverse, under the assumption they were genuine transaction requests. Bridge Hacks: Cross-chain bridges, which allow players to move their assets between their respective blockchains, continually face hacks, requiring vigilance from players and developers. Scams and Rug Pulls: Rug pulls occur when a game project raises money and leaves, leaving player assets worthless. Regulatory Ambiguity: Global regulations remain unclear; risks exist for players and developers alike. While blockchain alone won’t resolve every issue, it remediates the responsibility of the first principles, more so when joined by processes such as auditing, education, and the right governance, which can improve their contribution to the security landscapes in game ecosystems. Real Life Examples of Blockchain Security in Web3 Gaming Axie Infinity (Ronin Hack): The Axie Infinity game and several projects suffered one of the biggest hacks thus far on its Ronin bridge; however, it demonstrated the effectiveness of multi-sig security and the effective utilization of decentralization. The industry benefited through learning and reflection, thus, as projects have implemented changes to reduce the risks of future hacks or misappropriation. Immutable X: This Ethereum scaling solution aims to ensure secure NFT transactions for gaming, allowing players to trade an asset without the burden of exorbitant fees and fears of being a victim of fraud. Enjin: Enjin is providing a trusted infrastructure for Web3 games, offering secure NFT creation and transfer while reiterating that ownership and an asset securely belong to the player. These examples indubitably illustrate that despite challenges to overcome, blockchain remains the foundational layer on which to build more secure Web3 gaming environments. Benefits of Blockchain Security for Players and Developers For Players: Confidence in true ownership of assets Transparency in in-game economies Protection against nefarious trades/scams For Developers: More trust between players and the platform Less reliance on centralized infrastructure Ability to attract wealth and players based on provable fairness By incorporating blockchain security within the mechanics of game design, developers can create and enforce resilient ecosystems where players feel reassured in investing time, money, and ownership within virtual worlds. The Future of Secure Web3 Gaming Ecosystems As the wisdom of blockchain technology and industry knowledge improves, the future for secure Web3 gaming looks bright. New growing trends include: Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKPs): A new wave of protocols that enable private transactions and secure smart contracts while managing user privacy with an element of transparency. Decentralized Identity Solutions (DID): Helping players control their identities and decrease account theft risks. AI-Enhanced Security: Identifying irregularities in user interactions by sampling pattern anomalies to avert hacks and fraud by time-stamping critical events. Interoperable Security Standards: Allowing secured and seamless asset transfers across blockchains and games. With these innovations, blockchain will not only secure gaming assets but also enhance the overall trust and longevity of Web3 gaming ecosystems. Conclusion Blockchain is more than a buzzword in Web3; it is the only way to host security, fairness, and transparency. With blockchain, players confirm immutable ownership of digital assets, there is a decentralized infrastructure, and finally, it supports smart contracts to automate code that protects players and developers from the challenges of digital economies. The threats, vulnerabilities, and scams that come from smart contracts still persist, but the industry is maturing with better security practices, cross-chain solutions, and increased formal cryptographic tools. In the coming years, blockchain will remain the base to digital economies and drive Web3 gaming environments that allow players to safely own, trade, and enjoy their digital experiences free from fraud and exploitation. While blockchain and gaming alone entertain, we will usher in an era of secure digital worlds where trust complements innovation. The Role of Blockchain in Building Safer Web3 Gaming Ecosystems was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story
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