Structural support keeps rally in play – ING

ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey argues that despite recent consolidation after January’s sharp move, the Gold rally is not finished. She highlights ongoing central bank diversification away from the Dollar, heightened geopolitical risks, potential Federal Reserve easing, renewed ETF inflows and growing stablecoin-related demand as key structural supports that continue to favour Gold over the coming months.

Central banks, geopolitics and ETFs support

“Momentum may moderate from here. But the structural drivers underpinning the market remain firmly in place – and in some cases are strengthening.”

“As long as geopolitical fragmentation persists, a meaningful reversal in central bank gold demand looks unlikely. This structural floor continues to underpin the market at elevated price levels.”

“Our US economist expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the second quarter, with policy becoming incrementally less restrictive over the coming quarters. Even a modest easing cycle would be supportive for gold, lowering real yields and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.”

“If rate‑cut expectations firm or geopolitical risks intensify, a renewed wave of ETF inflows could provide another leg higher for gold prices.”

“Reserve evolution is no longer confined to central banks. The rapid growth of US dollar-backed stablecoins has created a new institutional buyer of reserve assets.”

“The path higher is unlikely to be linear. At record price levels, physical demand is becoming more price sensitive, and periods of consolidation – or short-term corrections – should be expected.”

“However, the structural pillars of this rally – central bank diversification, geopolitical fragmentation, potential policy easing and renewed ETF interest – remain intact. For now, the broader environment continues to favour gold.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)