September 2026 JOLTS Preview: Release Date, Quits Rate & Layoffs Data

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 15:00 UTC on November 3, which is 10:00 in New York and 23:00 in Singapore. The October employment report follows three days later on November 6, and because the two cover different months, neither can forecast the other.

 

What makes this release more useful than most is that September's employment outcome is already known: nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, unemployment stood at 4.2%, and 7.1 million people were unemployed. Tonight's figures fill in the gross flows behind that net number. The same 29,000 can come from hiring slowing or from layoffs rising, and the two carry very different implications for the rate path. The openings figure will lead the headlines, but hiring and quits are what answer that question.

 

 

 

August job openings stood at 7.079 million for a rate of 4.3%, hires at 5.192 million for 3.3%, quits at 3.066 million for 1.9%, and layoffs and discharges at 1.641 million for 1.0%. On those figures each actual hire corresponds to about 1.36 posted openings, while quits account for roughly 59% of all hiring, meaning most hiring refills positions vacated voluntarily rather than adding headcount. The quits rate of 1.9% sits below the 2.3% of January and February 2020 and roughly a third below the 3.0% peaks of November 2021 and March 2022. The major economic calendars have not published a consensus for September, leaving the forecast field blank.

 

 

JOLTS is released at 10:00 Eastern on November 3, which is 15:00 UTC and 23:00 in Singapore. That is an hour later than recent months, because US daylight saving time ended on November 1. The October employment report follows at 8:30 Eastern on November 6, which is 21:30 in Singapore.

 

The two cover different months, with JOLTS reporting September and the employment report reporting October, so treating JOLTS hires as a forecast for Friday's payrolls fails on timing alone. The more fundamental issue is the measurement basis. JOLTS reports gross flows, while the net payroll change is approximately hires minus total separations, and in August those two ran at 5.192 million and around 5.1 million respectively. A net figure in the hundreds of thousands emerges as the difference between two numbers above five million, so small movements in the gross flows are magnified in the net, which makes working backwards unreliable.

 

 

 

Openings is the series most often misread. As recruitment moved online, the same role is more frequently posted across several platforms and left open without being filled, which makes the level less informative than the direction. The real test is whether openings convert into hiring: in August about 1.36 openings corresponded to each actual start, and movement in that ratio says more about whether employer intent is genuine or merely watchful than the openings count does by itself.

 

Quits carries the most information in the current cycle. Resigning presupposes confidence in finding the next job, which makes the quits rate a direct reading of worker confidence. At 1.9% it sits below the pre-pandemic 2.3% and roughly a third below the cycle peak of 3.0%. The Economic Policy Institute reads a low quits rate as both sides sitting tight under uncertainty.

 

The layoffs rate of 1.0% is historically low. Low layoffs alongside low hiring describes a labour market with very little movement rather than a deteriorating one, where firms neither expand nor contract and workers neither switch jobs nor lose them. The risk in that configuration is that if hiring stays weak while layoffs begin to rise, displaced workers face far fewer openings to move into than in previous cycles.

 

 

September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and 7.1 million people unemployed, the rate having held between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. A net gain of 29,000 is clearly weak, but the number alone says nothing about why.

 

Tonight's data points to the answer. If September hires fall visibly from August's 5.192 million while layoffs hold near 1.641 million, the weak net reflects firms stepping back from hiring, which is demand cooling. If hires hold roughly flat while layoffs rise, contraction has begun, which is a considerably more serious reading. Similarly, a further fall in quits would indicate workers growing less confident about re-employment.

 

The ratio of openings to unemployed people is another figure available the same evening. With 7.1 million unemployed in September, openings landing near 7.1 million would put that ratio at about 1.0, one opening per unemployed person, against roughly 2.0 at the 2022 cycle peak. A ratio below 1.0 would mean openings no longer cover the unemployed population, which is a meaningful threshold in the supply and demand balance.

 

 

 

The major economic calendars have not published a consensus for September, with the forecast field blank, while some modelling firms put the range at 6.91 to 7.13 million. Even when a consensus exists, JOLTS surprises run wide relative to other macro releases.

 

 

April came in 758,000 above consensus and December 658,000 below, both overshooting by more than 600,000. With that dispersion, positioning around any specific forecast offers poor odds.

 

 

The August release also revised July, lifting job openings to 7.3 million and layoffs and discharges to 1.7 million. JOLTS collects responses over a long window, and the gap between first print and revised figure frequently changes the narrative for the month. That applies to tonight's September figures as well, which will themselves be revised next month, so same-evening conclusions deserve some latitude.

 

 

Labour data does not price assets directly; it works through rate expectations. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October 28 meeting by a vote of 10 to 2, with both dissenters favouring a further increase, and CME Group's FedWatch tool put December hike probability at 85.0% afterwards.

 

That backdrop inverts the usual reading of employment data. In a cutting cycle, weak labour data is generally taken as supportive of risk assets, while in the current debate over whether to hike again, weak data reduces the probability of a hike and firm data reinforces it. The direction is the same but the magnitude and persistence differ, since one soft JOLTS print will not overturn a December expectation already priced at 85%, and is more likely to affect the slope of the 2027 path.

 

When openings fell to 7.08 million in the previous release, the market response offers a reference point for tonight. Bitcoin responds to this class of data as it does to payrolls, transmitting through rate expectations, Treasury yields and the dollar rather than pricing the data itself, with the direction set by the gap between actual and consensus rather than the absolute level. With no published consensus this time, the first half of that mechanism is weaker, and price discovery is more likely to happen once the components have been read than in the moment of release. Live pricing through the print is on the Bitcoin price page.

 

Four things are worth reading in order tonight: the direction of hires against 5.192 million, whether layoffs tick up from 1.641 million, whether quits fall further from 3.066 million, and whether openings against September's 7.1 million unemployed drop below a ratio of 1.0. The headline openings number comes last.

 

 

Reducing JOLTS to a single openings figure is how this report has long been misused. Openings are employer intent and hires are employer action, and the gap between them means entirely different things in different periods. In 2021 openings ran far above hires because firms could not find workers. Now about 1.36 openings correspond to each start while roughly 59% of all hiring merely refills positions vacated voluntarily, which leaves genuinely expansionary demand as a fairly thin slice of the total. The same openings number supports opposite conclusions in those two environments.

 

The series I would watch most closely this cycle is quits. It is the only one of the four determined by workers rather than employers, which keeps it free of distortions from recruitment practice, posting habits and sample collection. At 1.9% it sits about 17% below the pre-pandemic level and roughly a third below the cycle peak, meaning a large number of people who could change jobs are choosing not to. That is benign for inflation, since job switching is the main source of wage growth, but it also conceals fragility, because a market with little movement loses its capacity to absorb displaced workers quickly once layoffs begin.

 

On the relationship with Friday's payrolls, my view is that each answers its own question and neither forecasts the other. JOLTS covers September while the employment report covers October, and JOLTS reports two gross flows above five million while payrolls reports a net figure in the hundreds of thousands. Deriving the second from the first means predicting a small number in a different month from the difference between two large ones, which amplifies the error until the conclusion carries no information. The useful exercise is to set tonight's September flows against the 29,000 net gain already published for that month and reconstruct what actually happened.

 

 

 

At 15:00 UTC on November 3, which is 10:00 in New York and 23:00 in Singapore. That is an hour later than recent months because US daylight saving time ended on November 1.

 

 

The major economic calendars have not published one, leaving the forecast field blank, while some modelling firms put the range at 6.91 to 7.13 million. The previous reading was August's 7.079 million.

 

 

August job openings of 7.079 million at a 4.3% rate, hires of 5.192 million at 3.3%, quits of 3.066 million at 1.9%, and layoffs and discharges of 1.641 million at 1.0%. All four changed little from July, and July openings were revised up to 7.3 million.

 

 

Openings reflect advertised intent and are shaped by posting practice, with the same role often listed on several platforms. Hires are positions actually filled and quits are decisions workers actually made. In August about 1.36 openings corresponded to each start, and roughly 59% of hiring refilled voluntary departures, so a high openings count does not by itself indicate expansion.

 

 

Resigning presupposes confidence in finding another job, so the quits rate reads as worker confidence. At 1.9% it is below the 2.3% of January and February 2020 and roughly a third below the 3.0% peaks of November 2021 and March 2022, indicating a large number of workers staying put.

 

 

No. The two cover different months, with JOLTS reporting September and the employment report reporting October. The measurement basis also differs, since the net payroll change is approximately hires minus total separations and both run above five million, so deriving a figure in the hundreds of thousands from their difference amplifies the error past the point of usefulness.

 

 

Substantial. The August release revised July openings to 7.3 million and layoffs to 1.7 million. JOLTS collects responses over a long window, and the gap between the first print and the revision often changes the narrative for the month, which will apply to tonight's September figures as well.

 

 

It depends on the policy phase. The Federal Reserve is currently debating whether to hike again, with December priced at an 85% probability, so weak data reduces hike odds rather than triggering cuts. A single JOLTS print will not overturn an expectation already priced at that level and is more likely to affect the slope of the 2027 path.

 

 

The direction of hires against 5.192 million, whether layoffs tick up from 1.641 million, whether quits fall further from 3.066 million, and whether openings against September's 7.1 million unemployed drop below a ratio of 1.0. The headline openings figure comes last.

 

 

This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Figures are current as of ahead of the November 3, 2026 release, conclusions may change once the September data is published, and all indicators should be confirmed against the original report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Crypto assets and leveraged products are highly volatile and can produce losses exceeding the initial outlay. Readers should verify the original disclosures and judge independently, consulting a qualified professional where appropriate.

 

 

James Mitchell specializes in technical analysis, market trends, and trading strategies for both Bitcoin and altcoins. Based in London, he has over 10 years of experience in financial markets. Before joining MEXC Learn, James worked as a senior analyst at a leading European investment firm, where he developed expertise in risk management and quantitative trading. His transition to cryptocurrency markets began in 2017, and he has since become recognized for his data-driven approach. He holds a Master's degree in Financial Economics from the London School of Economics. His analytical approach combines traditional technical analysis with on-chain metrics to provide readers with actionable insights.

 

Areas of Expertise: Technical Analysis, Market Trends and Cycles, Trading Strategies, Bitcoin and Altcoin Analysis, Risk Management.

 

 

 

Want the fastest access to MEXC's latest updates? Join our official Telegram group now!

MEXC Platform: Download App | Zero Fee Trading | Buy USDT Now

Join MEXC Community: X (Twitter) | Telegram | Discord

Get Insights: MEXC Learn | Terms of Service | MEXC Blog | MEXC News

Account Verification: Understand KYC | How to Complete KYC

External Content Platforms: Substack | Medium | Paragraph | LinkedIn | X(News)