How Low Could Bitcoin Go? Renowned Analyst Shares Key Levels to Watch Closely

Ali Martinez, a leading analyst in the cryptocurrency market, has updated his long-term bottom signals for Bitcoin, offering investors a noteworthy roadmap.

By analyzing various on-chain data and historical price movements, Martinez stated that the market is approaching potential bottoms and that a gradual buying strategy is emerging.

According to the analyst, one of the critical support levels for Bitcoin is around $63,111. According to UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data, there is a significant investor concentration between $70,685 and $63,111. This creates a strong “natural floor” in this region. Martinez states that as long as trading continues at this level, investors will tend to defend their costs.

However, the main upward trend line, which has been maintained for approximately 10 years, is also noteworthy. According to the analyst, the $60,000–$56,000 range has been the starting point for strong uptrends every time it has been tested in the past. Historical data shows that these touches were followed by increases of 963%, 261%, 1126%, and 660%, respectively. Therefore, it is stated that the current levels are a critical threshold from a technical perspective.

When examining deeper support levels, the CVDD indicator points to the $47,960 level. This metric represents structural bottoms where long-term investors transfer their assets to new investors. Martinez notes that Bitcoin typically experiences a strong rebound when it approaches these levels, often without staying there for long.

On the other hand, the $43.647 range, corresponding to an MVRV ratio of 0.8, is described as an “extreme pain” zone. Historically, these levels coincide with periods when weak hands exit the market and strong investors accumulate. The analyst states that this region often coincides with major bottom formations.

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The approximately $49,387 level, which represents the realized cost for long-term investors, also stands out as an important support. If the price falls below this level, a “final capitulation” scenario potentially extending to $36,657 could come into play.

Rather than attempting to predict a single bottom, the analyst is considering a gradual decline in the broad range between $63,000 and $36,000.

*This is not investment advice.

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