GSK Stock: What Drove the Q1 Earnings Beat — and Why the Market Sold Off

TLDR

• GSK’s Q1 core earnings per share came in at 46.5p, beating the 43.5p analyst estimate
• Around half of the profit beat came from legal settlement provisions, not core operations
• Shingrix vaccine sales jumped 20% to £1.0 billion; RSV vaccine Arexvy fell 18%
• GSK reaffirmed full-year guidance but flagged a growing currency drag from a stronger Sterling
• The stock fell roughly 3% on the morning of the results

GSK reported first-quarter profits above expectations on Wednesday, but the market wasn’t entirely impressed. The stock dropped around 3% after the results landed, as investors dug into the details.

Core operating profit for the three months ended March 31 rose 10% at constant exchange rates to £2.65 billion, well ahead of the company-compiled consensus of £2.46 billion. Core EPS hit 46.5 pence, up 9% year-on-year and above the 43.5 pence estimate.

GSK plc, GSK

Total sales rose 5% at constant exchange rates to £7.6 billion, matching consensus. That’s a solid number, but not one that moved the needle on its own.

Where the Growth Came From

The Specialty Medicines unit was the standout, climbing 14% to £3.2 billion. HIV treatments generated £1.8 billion, up 10%. The respiratory, immunology, and oncology portfolio grew 28% to £0.5 billion, though off a smaller base.

Vaccines brought in £2.1 billion, up 4%. Shingrix, GSK’s shingles vaccine, was the highlight — turnover jumped 20% to £1.0 billion, a record. The RSV vaccine Arexvy fell 18% to £0.1 billion, though the company pointed to seasonal patterns as the driver.

General Medicines was the weak spot, declining 6% to £2.3 billion and missing estimates by 3%.

Guidance Held, But Currency Is a Drag

GSK held its 2026 guidance, still targeting turnover growth of 3% to 5% and core operating profit growth of 7% to 9%.

However, the strengthening of Sterling against the U.S. dollar is creating a headwind on reported numbers. Jefferies noted the FX drag is leaving consensus estimates at the upper end of the guided range.

GSK also announced a change to its investor communications calendar. CEO Emma Walmsley and new commercial head Luke Miels will deliver a broader strategy update alongside Q2 results, replacing a previously planned HIV-specific event.

The company declared a first-quarter dividend of 15 pence per share.

GSK stock is up 42% over the past 12 months, well ahead of both the FTSE 100 and the broader Stoxx 600.

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