Asia trade and the ASEAN summit

The annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be held on May 7 to 8 in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu. The Philippines is the Chair of the ASEAN this year.

The latest statement issued by the group was on April 30 — the “Joint Statement of the ASEAN Economic Community Council on the Economic Implications of the Situation in the Middle East.” In that 15-point statement, they reiterated among others the following:

“…to refrain from introducing unnecessary non-tariff measures and other trade-distortive measures, particularly on food, energy, other essential goods, and their associated inputs during periods of crisis” (point No. 6).

“… the importance of a rules-based, non-discriminatory, open, and predictable, multilateral trading system, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core… global trading system remains open, predictable, transparent, and non-discriminatory” (point No. 12).

For me, these are very important points that must be reiterated: the importance of free trade, and non-discriminatory and non-arbitrary trading rules. This because the US is now the biggest violator of non-discriminatory, non-arbitrary trade rules, what with US President Donald Trump, Jr. announcing tariff hikes or tariff cuts any day on any country based on what annoys him or pleases him.

Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the March 2026 international merchandise trade statistics (IMTS) with comparative data for 2025. I checked the IMTS monthly database to get the numbers for 2024 and 2023, then I made the following observations:

1. Of the top 10 sources of Philippine imports, all are in Asia except for the US, five of which are from our ASEAN neighbors. More regional and geographical trade consolidation is good.

2. China’s share in Philippine imports keeps rising, from 21.7% in 2023 to 28.5% in 2026. South Korea’s share is also rising, from 7.1% to 11.5%.

3. The US’ share in Philippine imports keeps declining, from 6.7% in 2023 to 6% in 2026. Meanwhile, Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan’s shares have also been declining (see Table 1).

These are my observations about our exports market based on IMTS date:

1. The US remains our No. 1 export market and its share in total Philippine exports is rising, from 14.1% in 2023 to 17.7% in 2026. Hong Kong came in second with its share rising rapidly from 9.6% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2026.

2. Only Singapore and Malaysia in Asia made it to our top 10 export markets and their combined share declined slightly, from 8.6% in 2023 to 7.5% in 2026. The combined share of Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia also declined, from 7.8% in 2023 to 6% in 2026.

3. The shares of China and Japan have also been declining, from 32.2% combined in 2023 to 22.8% in 2026. Meanwhile, the shares of Germany and Netherlands have increased slightly (see Table 2).

Our total trade (exports plus imports) has been rising consistently and this is good, from $48.8 billion in March 2023 to $58.2 billion in March 2026. But our trade deficit (exports minus imports) remains big, -$14.5 billion in 2023 to -$12.8 billion in 2026. This merchandise trade deficit must be compensated for by non-merchandise trade surplus (OFW remittances, BPO revenues, inbound tourism, etc.) to manage our current account and overall balance of payments, avoid further depreciation of the Peso vs the US Dollar and many other currencies.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto, Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque may take the opportunity during the ASEAN Summit this week to remind our ASEAN neighbors to also prioritize Philippine exports to their countries, the same way that their exports to the Philippines are given priority.

Beyond trade diplomacy, the Philippines should look inwards and expand our production capacity, modernize our roads and ports infrastructure, and increase electricity generation considerably in order to power large manufacturing, industrial, and commercial needs.

In 2024, the average power generation in kilowatt hours (kWh) per capita were as follows: the Philippines, 1,148 kWh; Indonesia, 1,332 kWh; Thailand, 2,840 kWh; Vietnam, 2,997 kWh; Malaysia, 6,381 kWh; China, 7,163 kWh; Japan, 8,204 kWh; South Korea, 12,085 kWh; and, Taiwan, 12,332 kWh.

Our Asian neighbors still rely heavily on coal and not wind-solar power. In 2024, the average generation in kWh per capita from coal alone was as follows: the Philippines, 701 kWh; Indonesia, 811 kWh; Vietnam, 1,508 kWh; Japan, 2,426 kWh; Malaysia, 2,930 kWh; South Korea, 3,636 kWh; China, 4,138 kWh; and Taiwan, 4,842 kWh. Thailand and Singapore are more dependent on natural gas, which is still a fossil fuel, than coal. For more details, read this column in the Feb. 17 issue, “On ASEAN energy, Terra Solar, and PEPIF 2026.”

We need more trade, more modern infrastructure, more power generation (especially from coal and gas), and more peace and prosperity.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an internationa fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com