The US is winning in Iran. Or facts don’t care about your feelings

There is something almost predictable in the way news media reacts to American power and, much like the now deservedly maligned fact checkers, they are always humiliatingly wrong.

We are seeing their tired playbook again: try to deny the US action’s legality, diminish US wins it when the latter succeeds, and reinterpret the outcomes when it becomes clear that success is undeniable. They tried that in Venezuela and now they’re trying it in Iran.

For more than 60 days, the public has been repetitively told (almost beggingly, insistingly) that the US has been bogged down in Iran. The word “quagmire” again thrown gleefully around and accusations that US President Donald Trump has walked into a strategic trap.

But unfortunately, whether it be in Iran or elsewhere, Trump Derangement Syndrome can never be the foundation for foreign policy or analysis. All the more considerably when it is clear that the US has won.

“Won” not in the ticker tape parade imagery of past conflicts but rather in the precise, disciplined way of modern Statecraft: achieving strategic objectives at minimal cost while improving one’s relative position against rivals.

Regarding cost: the US basically obliterated the mightiest armed forces in the Middle East, destroyed any further capability to sponsor another Oct. 7 terrorist attack or restart its nuclear arms program. And the US did so with minimal casualties — 13 by some counts — and with a speed that would have made another Donald (Rumsfeld) proud. No quagmire, no rebuilding efforts, no occupying force, no boots on the ground. And yet the result is a degraded Iranian military and a collapsing regime.

All the foregoing, it must be added, comes with US expansion of strength beyond Iran. The naval blockade that Trump triggered — almost in a troll-like manner — has cascaded economic effects well beyond the present conflict. While indeed Tehran’s economy is being suffocated, with hundreds of millions of dollars being lost daily, it also affected energy constraints on China and economic pressure on Europe.

Meanwhile, the United States has surged into an even more dominant global position: “The US is taking back control of the fossil fuel industry — and that is of huge geopolitical significance” (“The US is back in charge of the oil industry,” The Spectator, March 2026). Because power is a matter of comparatives and comparatively speaking the US has gained exponential ground over an economically crippled China, a Ukraine-mired Russia, and a strategically confused Europe.

For the Philippines, this should be good news because the diminishment of its hostile neighbor could only be for the good: “With the Islamic Republic regime in Iran facing unprecedented strain, Xi Jinping has much to lose. China’s influence in the Middle East rests on a single pillar: the survival of the Islamic Republic. From energy to long-term Belt and Road ambitions, all roads run directly through Tehran. If the Iranian regime falls, China’s Middle East strategy falls with it. China’s economic weight in Iran is undeniable. Iran acts as Beijing’s gas station, sending roughly 90% of its oil exports — more than 1 million barrels per day” (“The US Strikes on Iran Are a Reminder to China: Power Is Power,” The Diplomat, March 2026).

And yet this message is not getting through and hence policy is getting muddled up, partly because of a news media that insists on thinking with double masks on.

What perhaps is more infuriating for the perennial anti-US crowd is that domestic support for Trump has stabilized and in some respects even improved. Contrary to the impression given by selective reporting, there is measurable support for the Trump administration’s actions. The recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found that large majorities of voters believe the United States is winning, with roughly three-quarters expressing that view, and over half supporting military strikes and considering them justified.

Even more telling are shifts within key constituencies. A Newsweek-reported survey showed that approval among Catholic voters rose from 48% to 51%, a three-point increase following the president’s confrontation with Pope Leo XIV over Iran.

Ultimately, this is not even a trivial political fact. Realistically, this is not good for the Democrats and even the remnants of the Iranian regime that is hoping for a Vietnam-era type loss of domestic support. Perhaps the world is indeed healing, in that we now have a public that appreciates effectiveness over warm and fuzzy virtue signaling.

Assuming, therefore, that Trump can manage fuel prices, stabilize the US economy, particularly cost of living, while maintaining peace and order domestically, Trump is actually in a strong position politically heading into the midterms.

The point: Iran’s military capacity is broken, its economy is being constricted, its leadership is nearly evaporated and vulnerable — all the foregoing with comparatively minimal cost and entanglement for the US, which actually multiplied its energy, economic, and military power.

That is a victory by any reasonable analysis. As Philip Dick once said: “reality doesn’t care what you think.”

Jemy Gatdula is the Dean of the UA&P Law School and is a Philippine Judicial Academy lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence. The views expressed here are his own and not necessarily of the institutions to which he belongs.

https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter @jemygatdula