Alibaba (BABA) Stock: Analyst Forecasts Ahead of Wednesday’s Q4 Report

Key Takeaways

• Alibaba’s fiscal Q4 FY26 results arrive May 13, prior to market open
• BABA shares have declined 4% year-to-date approaching the earnings release
• Analysts anticipate revenue around 246.5 billion yuan versus 236.45 billion yuan last year
• Projected net income stands at 11.16 billion yuan, down from 12.38 billion yuan previously
• Analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating with a $184.07 average target, suggesting ~31% potential gain

Alibaba prepares to unveil its fiscal fourth quarter FY26 financial performance this Wednesday, May 13, ahead of trading hours. Year-to-date, BABA shares have retreated approximately 4%.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, BABA

Wall Street projections point to quarterly revenue reaching 246.475 billion yuan, based on FactSet data. This represents growth from the 236.45 billion yuan recorded in the comparable period last year — marking approximately 4% expansion.

On the profitability front, net income forecasts settle at 11.16 billion yuan. This reflects a decline compared to the 12.38 billion yuan Alibaba delivered in last year’s corresponding quarter.

Several analyst firms project earnings per share at $0.90 for the period. Such a result would represent a significant contraction from the $1.83 achieved during the same quarter in the previous fiscal year.

The previous quarter’s performance disappointed investors. Alibaba fell short on both revenue and earnings metrics, delivering RMB 7.09 per ADS compared to analyst expectations of RMB 10.94.

That period saw revenue climb a modest 2% year over year to RMB 284.84 billion, missing the RMB 289.3 billion consensus target. Adjusted EBITA plunged 57% versus the prior year as the company faced substantial margin compression.

Artificial Intelligence Expenditures Under Scrutiny

Market participants will scrutinize AI-related expenditures carefully. Daiwa research indicates that Alibaba probably accelerated AI investment during the initial calendar quarter, incurring losses connected to model training infrastructure and aggressive promotional campaigns for its Qwen application.

Such expenses may have pressured earnings results. Nevertheless, the same research team expresses continued optimism regarding the company’s artificial intelligence capabilities and future monetization prospects over the medium term.

Alibaba’s quick-commerce division also draws attention. CGS International research projects this business unit experienced approximately 40% revenue expansion during the quarter, powered by increased transaction volumes.

BABA Ownership Breakdown

Retail and individual shareholders control the majority position — 88.44% according to TipRanks data. Company insiders account for 7.27%, with mutual funds and additional institutional players comprising the remainder.

Among significant insiders, Joseph C. Tsai maintains approximately a 4.82% ownership position. Company co-founder Fang Jiang controls roughly 2.20%.

Within the institutional landscape, Vanguard Chester Funds possesses 0.47% of BABA, while Dodge & Cox Funds maintains 0.37%.

The substantial retail investor presence makes BABA particularly sensitive to news developments and market sentiment shifts — an important consideration entering an earnings announcement following recent inconsistent performance.

Notwithstanding recent challenges, Wall Street maintains confidence in the stock. Alibaba holds a Strong Buy consensus based on 14 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings issued during the past three months.

The consensus price target stands at $184.07, implying approximately 31% appreciation potential from present trading levels.

Alibaba’s Hong Kong-traded shares advanced 13% during Q1 2026, benefiting from renewed enthusiasm surrounding Hong Kong technology equities.

Quick-commerce segment losses likely decreased during the quarter. CGS International analysts project this division could achieve profitability by the 2029 fiscal year.

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