Mosaic (MOS) Stock Slides as Iran War Squeezes Margins and Kills Guidance

TLDR

• Mosaic reported a Q1 net loss of $258 million, well below analyst forecasts of a $71.5 million profit.
• Net sales of $3 billion beat estimates of $2.9 billion, but volatile conditions hit the bottom line hard.
• Record sulfur prices drove up input costs, and Mosaic has withdrawn its phosphate production guidance.
• The company is cutting phosphate output at U.S. and Brazil facilities and trimming 2026 capex to $1.25 billion.
• MOS stock fell around 3.6% in premarket and is down roughly 7.9% year-to-date.

Mosaic (MOS) stock dropped about 3.6% in premarket trading on Monday after the fertilizer company posted a surprise loss for the first quarter of 2026.

The Mosaic Company, MOS

The company reported a net loss of $258 million. Analysts had expected a profit of $71.5 million, according to FactSet. That’s a big miss.

On an adjusted basis, Mosaic earned 5 cents per share. Wall Street had been looking for 24 cents. Still a miss.

Net sales came in at $3 billion, which actually topped the consensus estimate of $2.9 billion. The revenue beat, though, wasn’t enough to offset concerns about rising costs and a murky production outlook.

The Iran war has tightened global fertilizer supply and lifted prices — a tailwind for Mosaic’s top line. But it has also pushed up the company’s input costs. Sulfur prices hit record levels in the quarter, eating into margins.

Production Cuts and Guidance Withdrawal

Mosaic pulled its full-year phosphate production guidance on Monday. The company said it plans to scale back phosphate output at facilities in both the U.S. and Brazil starting this month as it reassesses its operating plan for the rest of 2026.

Analysts responded by cutting their price targets on the stock. The combination of reduced guidance, production cuts, and tighter working capital management was read by investors as a sign of a tougher road ahead.

The company also trimmed its 2026 capital spending plan to $1.25 billion, deferring projects it deemed less time-sensitive. Mosaic said the cuts should not materially affect its medium-term operating rates.

Peers Hold Up Better

Not all fertilizer names sold off. CF Industries, which focuses mainly on nitrogen fertilizers, rose 1.3% on Monday. CF Industries actually got a boost at the start of the Iran conflict. Fellow producer Nutrien was up 0.9% in premarket trading.

Mosaic stock has now fallen about 7.9% year-to-date as of Friday’s close. The technical sentiment signal is currently listed as a sell, with a market cap sitting around $7.05 billion.

Average daily trading volume runs at about 9.5 million, so Monday’s moves are being watched closely.

The company’s next steps in reassessing its phosphate operating plan for the rest of the year will be a key focus for investors.

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