Walmart (WMT) Stock: Analyst Outlook Ahead of Q1 Earnings Report

Key Takeaways

• Q1 FY27 results arrive May 21, with Wall Street forecasting $0.66 EPS and approximately $174.8B in revenue
• Strong analyst consensus: 28 out of 30 analysts maintain Buy ratings with price targets spanning $132–$150
• Recent target increases include Piper Sandler to $137, Bernstein to $145, while UBS maintains $147
• Projected U.S. comparable store sales growth of 3.9%–4.5%, fueled by online sales and grocery strength
• Consumer sentiment at 1952 lows and elevated gas prices present ongoing challenges

Shares of Walmart have climbed approximately 18% year-to-date, trading near $131 as of May 17. As Thursday’s quarterly report approaches, the retail behemoth enjoys substantial Wall Street support while navigating several notable market pressures.

Walmart Inc., WMT

Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Among 30 firms tracking the stock, 28 have assigned Buy ratings. The consensus price target hovers around $136.45, suggesting moderate appreciation potential from present levels. Piper Sandler’s Peter Keith elevated his price objective to $137 from $130, maintaining his Overweight stance. His analysis indicates consumer expenditure has remained resilient despite elevated fuel costs, though tax refund season failed to generate meaningful retail momentum—suggesting households prioritized savings over discretionary purchases.

Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma increased his target from $134 to $145. His research suggests retailers catering to affluent consumers may benefit from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” though he cautioned that elevated fuel expenses, inflationary pressures, and diminished government transfer payments could constrain broader consumer spending.

Michael Lasser of UBS maintained his Buy recommendation with a $147 price target. His forecast anticipates roughly 4.5% U.S. comparable sales expansion, propelled by e-commerce growth exceeding 25%. While he identified potential weakness in health and wellness categories, Lasser still projects Walmart’s domestic operations will deliver robust profit expansion toward the upper bound of management’s guidance.

Financial Projections Breakdown

Wall Street consensus calls for Q1 earnings per share of $0.66, representing approximately 8% year-over-year growth. Revenue projections center around $174.8B, reflecting more than 6% expansion. These figures follow Q4 FY2025 results, when Walmart delivered $190.7B in revenue and $0.74 EPS—both surpassing estimates—though net income declined roughly 19% due to a non-recurring Vizio integration charge and elevated supply chain expenses.

This reporting period, comparable store sales performance will be under intense scrutiny. Market participants anticipate U.S. same-store sales gains between 3.9% and 4.5%, supported by grocery category strength and affluent consumers shifting to value retailers. Groceries represent approximately two-thirds of Walmart’s domestic revenue base, providing defensive characteristics when discretionary spending weakens.

Investors will pay close attention to newly appointed CEO John Furner’s remarks. Having assumed leadership on February 1, this marks his first complete quarter at the helm. Analysts anticipate pragmatic guidance emphasizing market share gains and candid assessment of second-half consumer spending trends.

Advertising and Subscription Services Drive Margins

Walmart’s advertising platform and membership program have emerged as increasingly significant revenue drivers. Global advertising revenue surged 37% in Q4, with Walmart Connect specifically jumping 41%. Walmart+ subscription revenue increased 15.1%. These segments command operating margins exceeding 70%, dramatically outperforming traditional retail operations.

Investors are looking for global advertising growth to maintain momentum above 30% this quarter. Such performance would help compensate for any softness in discretionary merchandise categories.

Barclays reaffirmed its Buy rating with a $132 target. Bank of America maintained its Buy recommendation at $150, pointing to the strength of core customer segments and expectations that economic uncertainty will drive additional traffic to discount-oriented retailers. Wolfe Research raised its price objective from $135 to $137.

Walmart currently trades at a P/E multiple near 48x, significantly elevated compared to its five-year average of 36x.

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