Bitcoin Faces ‘Bear Market’ Warning as Rally Mirrors 2022 Breakdown

CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno warned that Bitcoin had reached a major historical resistance zone. 

The analyst said the 200-day moving average acted as a key ceiling during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin resumed its downtrend after touching the level in March of that year.

“In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption,” Moreno said. The current pattern then is a risk signal, as Bitcoin rallied about 37% from roughly US$60,000 (AU$83K) in February to about US$82,000 (AU$114K), then failed near the same long-term trend line that traders use to separate bull and bear phases.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near US$77,800 (AU$108,100) after failing to break above its 200-day moving average near US$82,400 (AU$114,500), reviving Moreno’s warnings that the latest rebound may resemble a 2022-style relief rally.

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Resistance Holds

The 200-day moving average matters because it is widely followed by systematic traders, discretionary funds and crypto-native analysts. When price trades below a declining 200-day average, rallies into that level are often treated as tests of whether demand is strong enough to reverse the broader trend.

So far, the test has failed. Bitcoin’s latest quote around US$77,847 (AU$108K) keeps the asset below the US$82,400 resistance area, with intraday trading between US$76,492 (AU$106K) and US$78,057 (AU$108K).

CryptoQuant also flagged profit-taking risk. Market summaries said traders’ unrealised profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, their highest level since June 2025, which can create selling pressure when a rebound stalls at resistance.

Additional CryptoQuant data showed open interest (OI) on major crypto exchanges had fallen by nearly US$1.25 billion (AU$1.74 billion), signalling fading futures momentum.

Sentiment has also struggled to recover. Earlier CryptoQuant data showed the firm’s Bull Score Index fell to 10, a level it characterised as extremely bearish, after sitting near 80 when Bitcoin reached its October 2025 high.

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