Can V11 Upgrade Help Cardano Price Rebound Toward $0.29?

Key Insights:

• Cardano’s V11 Van Rossem upgrade is live on the preview testnet.
• ADA crypto price must hold $0.248 and $0.235 to keep its recovery setup intact.
• A move above $0.275 could open a rebound toward the $0.29 target.

Cardano price remained under pressure this week despite progress on the network’s next major upgrade. ADA traded near $0.249 on May 20 after falling 0.81% during the session.

The token has now dropped more than 8% over the past seven days as broader crypto market weakness continued weighing on sentiment.

Still, traders remain focused on Cardano’s V11 Van Rossem hard fork, which recently went live on the preview testnet ahead of a governance vote scheduled for May 29.

Cardano V11 Upgrade Expands Smart Contract Features

Cardano’s V11 upgrade is now live on the preview testnet, moving the network closer to a broader smart contract update. The Van Rossem hard fork focuses on improving how developers build and run applications on Cardano, with changes aimed at lowering costs and strengthening performance.

The update includes improvements to Plutus and BLS12-381 cryptography. These changes could make smart contracts cheaper to execute while giving Cardano a stronger technical base. That matters for developers and users who closely watch network fees, speed, and security.

This timing matters for Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem. DeFiLlama data cited shows Cardano’s TVL lost 28 million ADA between May 16 and May 20. Cheaper smart contracts may help slow that decline if developers and users respond after the vote.

Beyond V11, the Leios Cardano upgrade is expected to reach testnet in June 2026 and aims to lift throughput above 1,000 transactions per second. Developers are also planning longer-term quantum-resistance improvements by 2030.

ADA Crypto Market Mood Stays Defensive

Still, ADA crypto price has not responded strongly to the upgrade news. Cardano price is down 6% over the past week, showing that broader market weakness continues to weigh on price action. Derivatives traders also remain cautious. CoinGlass data places Cardano’s long-short ratio at still expecting pressure to continue near current levels.

At the same time, Santiment data shows that the hard fork and May 29 governance vote are driving more discussion around ADA’s price outlook. Higher discussion can improve visibility, but Cardano price still needs real demand to confirm a stronger recovery.

ADA Crypto Wedge Breakout Keeps $0.29 in Play

From a short-term technical view, Cardano price has broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. This structure often appears when selling pressure starts to fade after a sharp decline.

The breakout level near $0.248 is now important support. If ADA crypto price holds above this area, buyers could attempt a move toward $0.275. A clean break above $0.275 would then put the $0.29 target back in focus.

Momentum indicators show early improvement, although they are not fully bullish yet. The four-hour RSI sits near 41, which still reflects bearish pressure. However, the indicator is turning upward, showing that buyers are trying to regain control.

The Awesome Oscillator is also improving, with green bars appearing after ADA’s weekly decline. That suggests downside momentum is weakening. Even so, bulls still need follow-through above $0.275 to confirm that the wedge breakout has strength.

Analyst Flags Cardano Price Downside Risk

On the other hand, Crypto Jobs warned that ADA crypto price remains trapped near its 120-day range low. The analyst said momentum is still bearish, adding that a daily break below $0.235 could trigger a larger move downward.

The daily chart shows ADA struggling near the lower edge of a broad consolidation range. Resistance sits near $0.2723 and $0.3025, while the key breakdown area remains around $0.2370 to $0.2355.

If ADA loses that lower band, the chart points to deeper support around $0.158 to $0.154. A more severe sell-off could even bring the $0.0939 level into view, although that would require a much stronger bearish move.

That warning creates a clear divide in Cardano’s outlook. The four-hour wedge supports a relief rally toward $0.29, while the daily chart warns that ADA is still close to a breakdown zone.

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