Sixers, Quentin Grimes Would Both Lose If He Accepts $8.7 Million Qualifying Offer

It’s appearing increasingly unlikely that the Philadelphia 76ers will sign Quentin Grimes to a long-term contract this offseason, according to multiple reports.

On Wednesday, Tony Jones of The Athletic reported Grimes had “two offers on the table”—his one-year, $8.7 million qualifying offer, and a “one-year balloon payment” which would require him to waive his implicit no-trade clause. Grimes’ agent, David Bauman, later told Gina Mizell of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the Sixers had also offered Grimes a four-year, $39 million contract, which a Sixers source “strongly refuted” to Mizell.

League sources told Michael Scotto of HoopsHype that because of “the wide gap in evaluation,” it’s “highly unlikely” that Grimes and the Sixers will come to an agreement on a long-term deal. Scotto added that for Grimes to “waive his no-trade clause flexibility on any one-year deal, Philadelphia’s offer would preferably somewhere north of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($14 million) and $19 million range.” Otherwise, Grimes will “strongly consider” signing his qualifying offer “and retaining his no-trade clause flexibility.”

Grimes’ qualifying offer will automatically expire on Oct. 1, so he and the Sixers only have a few more days to hash out terms either on a one-year deal or a long-term contract. Both he and the Sixers should be motivated to avoid the qualifying offer at all costs, as it’s a lose-lose scenario for both sides.

Why Grimes Shouldn’t Want The Qualifying Offer

If Grimes does accept the qualifying offer, he’ll have the right to veto any trade involving him this season. That’s because he would lose his Bird rights if he does get traded, which could hamper his new team’s ability to re-sign him in free agency next summer.

When a team has Bird rights on a free agent, it can re-sign him to anything up to a maximum contract even if it’s over the salary cap. But if Grimes gets traded after accepting his qualifying offer, his new team will only have non-Bird rights on him. His new team therefore couldn’t offer him more than 120% of the value of his qualifying offer (roughly $10.4 million) as the starting salary of his next contract, unless it used a separate salary-cap exception (such as the non-taxpayer mid-level exception) on him.

Bauman told Mizell that he believed Grimes “should command $20-25 million annually” on his next contract. Unless his new team had enough cap space to re-sign him to a contract starting at that figure, he’d have to leave after one season to command that type of a payday. Any team interested in trading for him thus might not be willing to give up much since it could face realistic competition for him next summer without his Bird rights.

Maintaining the right to veto any trade would give Grimes full control over his future. If nothing else, he could refuse to accept any trade, stay in Philadelphia for the season and then test his luck as an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Sixers would still have his Bird rights at that point, which could give them an advantage in free agency.

But if Grimes is looking for a fresh start elsewhere, the qualifying offer might not be his best path out of Philadelphia.

Why The Sixers Shouldn’t Want The Qualifying Offer

If Grimes takes the qualifying offer, the Sixers will be roughly $1.1 million under the $195.9 million first apron with 14 players under standard contract. They’d also still have his Bird rights next summer if they didn’t trade him before then. That’s about where the good news ends, though.

Since Grimes’ Bird rights wouldn’t travel with him in a trade, that could tamp down overall trade interest in him. Even if they found a team that wanted to trade for him, his $8.7 million contract would limit how much salary they could receive in a deal.

If the Sixers cross the first apron at any point this season, they won’t be allowed to take back more salary than they send out in a trade. If they do take back more salary than they send out, they’ll be hard-capped at the first apron through June 30, 2026, which means they couldn’t cross that threshold under any circumstances.

The Sixers could package Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million) or Andre Drummond ($5.0 million) with Grimes to take back a larger contract, but they wouldn’t be able to receive someone in the $20-25 million range without swinging a 3-for-1 deal or trading one of Joel Embiid, Paul George or Tyrese Maxey. If they signed Grimes to a one-year balloon deal in the $15-20 million range, they’d give themselves far more trade flexibility, although they’d also push themselves well above the first apron and close to the $207.8 million second apron.

Even if they sign Grimes to a one-year balloon deal, he’d still lose his Bird rights if he agreed to a trade. However, his non-Bird rights would have more value if he’s on a larger contract, as his new team could offer him far more in free agency than it could on the qualifying offer.

Signing Grimes to a larger one-year contract would cost the Sixers more in luxury tax, although they’d still have a few months to cut down on their tax bill. Even if Grimes isn’t wiling to waive his implicit no-trade clause with such a deal, a larger contract should make him more appealing from a trade perspective than if he picks up the qualifying offer.

Both sides may still be posturing ahead of the Oct. 1 deadline, although there’s only a few days left for them to reach a resolution. Either way, the qualifying offer is a nuclear option that wouldn’t benefit Grimes or the Sixers. They both have incentive to avoid that at all costs.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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