Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver Surge as U.S. Government Shutdown Odds Hit 85%

• If Republicans and Democrats fail to strike a bipartisan funding deal, the U.S. government will shut down at midnight Tuesday.
• Analysts warn of short-term price swings across Bitcoin, gold, and stocks before long-term rally potential kicks in.

Markets are flashing risk-on signals for safe-haven assets as political tensions in Washington escalate, with Republicans and Democrats still at odds over how to fund the government. In a press briefing on Monday, US Vice President JD Vance said,

Unless President Trump and Capitol Hill leaders reach an agreement, federal funding lapses at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday.

In anticipation of a funding lapse, agencies have been instructed by the White House to ready plans for layoffs and furloughs, affecting millions of federal employees who would go unpaid during a shutdown.

The confrontation escalated when Trump canceled talks with Democratic leaders, calling a meeting “unproductive” and criticizing their demands.

Six months back, Democrats conceded to a spending measure crafted by Republicans. This time around, they are drawing a line, saying they will not agree again unless they play a role in shaping the final bill.

While the GOP currently holds the presidency and both chambers of Congress, Democrats retain negotiating leverage since 60 votes are needed in the Senate, where Republicans hold only 53 seats.

As a result, the odds of a U.S. federal government shutdown have soared to around 84% on Polymarket, and investors are already reacting, with Bitcoin, gold, and silver all posting strong gains amid the growing uncertainty.

A BTC, Gold, and Silver Rally?

When government stability is in question, capital often moves toward assets perceived as “stores of value.” That’s exactly what’s happening now. The U.S. government shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, was the longest shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 35 days, with about $3 billion permanently lost.

The shutdown began because of a budget standoff between then-President Donald Trump and Congress over funding for a wall along the U.S.–Mexico border. Trump demanded $5.7 billion for border wall construction while the democrats in Congress refused to allocate those funds, offering alternatives for border security instead.

A U.S. government shutdown could throw a wrench into the timeline for crypto Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approvals. For instance, Crypto News Flash recently reported that the SEC is set to announce its decision on Canary Capital’s proposal on October 2, while Grayscale has an October 10 deadline for converting its Solana and Litecoin trusts.

With a shutdown, regulatory agencies would be forced to scale back operations, leaving only “essential” functions active.

This further adds a layer of uncertainty to markets, and that typically fuels demand for safe-haven assets. Back in the 2018 shutdown, gold prices inched up by just $20, while silver barely reacted, and Bitcoin actually declined.

This time, however, the story looks very different. As we detailed in our last news piece, Gold has just smashed through $3,800 per ounce, reaching $3,872 on Monday and locking in year-to-date gains of nearly 50%, with new records set on rate-cut bets and shutdown fears.

Silver is also drawing strong interest, surging to $47 and marking a 14-year high as investors diversify across precious metals.

Bitcoin is showing resilience in the macro storm, trading just under the $115,000 threshold, and while a pullback remains possible, many see it as a buy-the-dip opportunity with the potential to rebound toward $120,000.